Math Problem Statement

Consider one-period market \( \mathcal{M} = (B_t, S_t^1, S_t^2) \) with prices satisfying \( B_0 = 1, B_T = 1.1; (S_0^1, S_0^2) = (10, 20) \) and \( (S_1^1, S_1^2) \) has the joint distribution: - \((15, 21)\) with probability 0.5 - \((10, 22.5)\) with probability 0.25 - \((10, 22.2)\) with probability 0.25 (i) Prove this market contains no arbitrage. (ii) Consider the contingent claim \( X = \sqrt{S_1^1} + \sqrt{S_1^2} \). Show that there is a portfolio \( h^* \) that replicates \( X \) without finding \( h^* \) explicitly. (iii) Prove that the arbitrage-free price of \( X \) is the value of the portfolio \( h^* \) at time 0.

Solution

Let's tackle each part of this problem step-by-step.


Part (i): Prove this market contains no arbitrage.

To prove there is no arbitrage, we need to check if there exists a risk-neutral probability measure under which the discounted price processes of all assets are martingales.

  1. Risk-Free Asset: Given B0=1B_0 = 1 and BT=1.1B_T = 1.1, the risk-free rate rr can be computed as: r=BTB01=0.1r = \frac{B_T}{B_0} - 1 = 0.1

  2. Asset Price Dynamics: We have two assets with initial prices S01=10S_0^1 = 10 and S02=20S_0^2 = 20. Their prices at time TT follow the distribution:

    • (S11,S12)=(15,21)(S_1^1, S_1^2) = (15, 21) with probability 0.5
    • (S11,S12)=(10,22.5)(S_1^1, S_1^2) = (10, 22.5) with probability 0.25
    • (S11,S12)=(10,22.2)(S_1^1, S_1^2) = (10, 22.2) with probability 0.25
  3. Check for Arbitrage: We need to verify if there exists a set of probabilities q1,q2,q3q_1, q_2, q_3 for the possible outcomes such that the expected discounted price at TT is equal to the price at t=0t = 0.

    Define the probabilities of the outcomes as q1,q2,q3q_1, q_2, q_3 such that: 0.5q1+0.25q2+0.25q3=10.5q_1 + 0.25q_2 + 0.25q_3 = 1 Then calculate the expected values to ensure they satisfy the no-arbitrage condition. If such probabilities exist, then the market contains no arbitrage.

Part (ii): Show that there is a portfolio hh^* that replicates X=S11+S12X = \sqrt{S_1^1} + \sqrt{S_1^2}.

To prove the existence of a replicating portfolio hh^*, we need to show that the contingent claim XX can be expressed as a linear combination of the asset prices at time TT.

  1. Formulate XX in Terms of S11S_1^1 and S12S_1^2: The claim X=S11+S12X = \sqrt{S_1^1} + \sqrt{S_1^2} is dependent on the terminal values of S11S_1^1 and S12S_1^2.

  2. Linear Combination: Since the market has two assets and one risk-free asset, a self-financing portfolio hh^* can potentially replicate XX. By the completeness of the market (assuming it is complete), there exists a portfolio hh^* that can replicate the claim XX.

  3. Justification: Since XX can be expressed as a function of S11S_1^1 and S12S_1^2, the market’s completeness implies the existence of a replicating portfolio.

Part (iii): Prove that the arbitrage-free price of XX is the value of the portfolio hh^* at time 0.

  1. Arbitrage-Free Price: In a market with no arbitrage, the price of a contingent claim XX at time 0 is the expected value of its payoff under the risk-neutral measure, discounted by the risk-free rate.

  2. Value of XX at Time 0: The arbitrage-free price of XX, denoted by π(X)\pi(X), is: π(X)=EQ[X1.1]\pi(X) = \mathbb{E}^Q \left[ \frac{X}{1.1} \right] where QQ is the risk-neutral probability measure.

  3. Portfolio Value: Since hh^* replicates XX, the value of hh^* at time 0 must equal π(X)\pi(X), as any deviation would imply an arbitrage opportunity.


Additional Questions

  1. What are the steps to calculate the risk-neutral probabilities q1,q2,q3q_1, q_2, q_3?
  2. How does the presence of a risk-free asset influence the arbitrage conditions in this market?
  3. Can you construct an explicit replicating portfolio hh^* for XX?
  4. How would the solution change if the market were incomplete?
  5. What assumptions are necessary for the existence of a risk-neutral measure?

Tip: To determine no-arbitrage conditions, focus on ensuring that expected discounted prices align with initial values under some probability distribution.

Ask a new question for Free

By Image

Drop file here or Click Here to upload

Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Arbitrage Theory
Probability Theory
Risk-Neutral Measure
Derivative Pricing

Formulas

Risk-free rate formula: \( r = \frac{B_T}{B_0} - 1 \)
Contingent claim formula: \( X = \sqrt{S_1^1} + \sqrt{S_1^2} \)
Expected value of discounted payoff: \( \pi(X) = \mathbb{E}^Q \left[ \frac{X}{1.1} \right] \)

Theorems

No-Arbitrage Condition
Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing
Law of One Price

Suitable Grade Level

Undergraduate Finance/Economics