Math Problem Statement

A survey was given to a random sample of 50 residents of a town to determine whether they support a new plan to raise taxes in order to increase education spending. Of those surveyed, 20 respondents said they were in favor of the plan. At the 95% confidence level, what is the margin of error for this survey expressed as a proportion to the nearest thousandth? (Do not write plus or minus±).

Solution

To find the margin of error for the survey at the 95% confidence level, we can use the formula for the margin of error (ME) in a proportion:

ME=z×p(1p)n\text{ME} = z \times \sqrt{\frac{p(1 - p)}{n}}

Where:

  • zz is the z-score corresponding to the desired confidence level (for 95% confidence, z1.96z \approx 1.96),
  • pp is the sample proportion,
  • nn is the sample size.

Given:

  • Sample size n=50n = 50,
  • Number of favorable responses x=20x = 20,
  • Proportion p=2050=0.4p = \frac{20}{50} = 0.4.

Let's calculate the margin of error:

ME=1.96×0.4×(10.4)50\text{ME} = 1.96 \times \sqrt{\frac{0.4 \times (1 - 0.4)}{50}}

ME=1.96×0.4×0.650\text{ME} = 1.96 \times \sqrt{\frac{0.4 \times 0.6}{50}}

ME=1.96×0.2450\text{ME} = 1.96 \times \sqrt{\frac{0.24}{50}}

ME=1.96×0.0048\text{ME} = 1.96 \times \sqrt{0.0048}

ME=1.96×0.0693\text{ME} = 1.96 \times 0.0693

ME0.135\text{ME} \approx 0.135

So, the margin of error for this survey at the 95% confidence level is approximately 0.135.

Would you like to go through the steps in more detail or ask about related concepts? Here are some questions that might be useful:

  1. What is the significance of the 95% confidence level?
  2. How does the sample size affect the margin of error?
  3. What would happen to the margin of error if the sample proportion pp were closer to 0 or 1?
  4. How is the z-score determined for different confidence levels?
  5. What would the margin of error be for a different sample size?

Tip: The margin of error decreases as the sample size increases, which means larger samples provide more precise estimates.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Statistics
Margin of Error
Confidence Intervals

Formulas

Margin of Error (ME) = z * sqrt(p(1-p)/n)

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12