Math Problem Statement

The table below gives the age and bone density for five randomly selected women. Using this data, consider the equation of the regression line, yˆ=b0+b1x, for predicting a woman's bone density based on her age. Keep in mind, the correlation coefficient may or may not be statistically significant for the data given. Remember, in practice, it would not be appropriate to use the regression line to make a prediction if the correlation coefficient is not statistically significant.

Age

40

61

62

68

69

Bone Density

357

350

343

340

315

Table

Step 5 of 6 :  

Substitute the values you found in steps 1 and 2 into the equation for the regression line to find the estimated linear model. According to this model, if the value of the independent variable is increased by one unit, then find the change in the dependent variable yˆ.

Solution

To solve this problem, we need to follow a few steps to determine the regression line equation, y^=b0+b1x\hat{y} = b_0 + b_1x, where y^\hat{y} represents the predicted bone density based on age, xx is the age, b1b_1 is the slope of the regression line, and b0b_0 is the y-intercept.

Step 1: Find the Slope b1b_1

The formula for the slope of the regression line b1b_1 is:

b1=nxy(x)(y)nx2(x)2b_1 = \frac{n \sum xy - (\sum x)(\sum y)}{n \sum x^2 - (\sum x)^2}

Where:

  • xx is the age
  • yy is the bone density
  • nn is the number of data points (in this case, 5)

We first need the following calculations:

  • x\sum x = 40 + 61 + 62 + 68 + 69 = 300
  • y\sum y = 357 + 350 + 343 + 340 + 315 = 1705
  • xy\sum xy = (40 \times 357) + (61 \times 350) + (62 \times 343) + (68 \times 340) + (69 \times 315) = 14280 + 21350 + 21266 + 23120 + 21735 = 101751
  • x2\sum x^2 = 40^2 + 61^2 + 62^2 + 68^2 + 69^2 = 1600 + 3721 + 3844 + 4624 + 4761 = 18550

Now, substitute these values into the formula for b1b_1:

b1=5(101751)(300)(1705)5(18550)(300)2b_1 = \frac{5(101751) - (300)(1705)}{5(18550) - (300)^2}

b1=5087555115009275090000b_1 = \frac{508755 - 511500}{92750 - 90000}

b1=274527500.9982b_1 = \frac{-2745}{2750} \approx -0.9982

Thus, the slope b10.9982b_1 \approx -0.9982.

Step 2: Find the Y-Intercept b0b_0

The formula for the y-intercept is:

b0=ynb1(xn)b_0 = \frac{\sum y}{n} - b_1 \left( \frac{\sum x}{n} \right)

Substitute the values:

b0=17055(0.9982)(3005)b_0 = \frac{1705}{5} - (-0.9982) \left( \frac{300}{5} \right)

b0=341(0.9982)(60)b_0 = 341 - (-0.9982)(60)

b0=341+59.892=400.892b_0 = 341 + 59.892 = 400.892

Thus, the y-intercept b0400.892b_0 \approx 400.892.

Step 3: Write the Regression Equation

Now, substitute b0b_0 and b1b_1 into the regression equation:

y^=400.8920.9982x\hat{y} = 400.892 - 0.9982x

Step 4: Change in yy When xx Increases by 1

The slope b1b_1 represents the change in the predicted bone density for every 1-year increase in age. Since b1=0.9982b_1 = -0.9982, we conclude that for every additional year in age, the predicted bone density decreases by approximately 0.9982 units.

Final Result:

The regression equation is:

y^=400.8920.9982x\hat{y} = 400.892 - 0.9982x

If the value of the independent variable (age) increases by 1 year, the dependent variable (bone density) decreases by approximately 0.9982 units.

Do you want more details or have any questions about this process?

Here are 5 related questions to explore further:

  1. How do we test the significance of the correlation coefficient?
  2. What are the assumptions behind linear regression?
  3. How do residuals influence the accuracy of the regression model?
  4. Can we predict bone density for ages outside of the given range?
  5. How can we interpret the y-intercept in this context?

Tip: Always check the statistical significance of the slope (using hypothesis testing) before making predictions with a regression model.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Linear Regression
Correlation Coefficient
Statistical Significance

Formulas

Slope formula: b1 = (nΣxy - ΣxΣy) / (nΣx^2 - (Σx)^2)
Y-intercept formula: b0 = Σy/n - b1(Σx/n)
Regression equation: ŷ = b0 + b1x

Theorems

Least Squares Method
Linear Regression Model

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12 (Statistics, Advanced Algebra)