Math Problem Statement

Albert thinks that he has a special relationship with the number 6. In particular, Albert thinks that he would roll a
6 with a fair six-sided die more often than you'd expect by chance alone. Suppose
p is the true proportion of the time Albert will roll a 6 . (a) State the null and alternative hypotheses for testing Albert's claim.

H0: P= 0.1667

Ha: P >0.1667

(b) Now suppose Albert makes n=30 rolls, and a
6 comes up
6 times out of the
30 rolls. Determine the
p-value of the test. p -value =
(c) Does this sample provide evidence at the 5 percent level that Albert rolls a
6 more often than you'd expect

Solution

Let's tackle this step-by-step.

Given Information

  • Albert rolls a six-sided die n=30n = 30 times.
  • He observes a 6 occurring x=6x = 6 times out of 30 rolls.
  • Null Hypothesis H0:p=0.1667H_0: p = 0.1667, where pp is the true probability of rolling a 6 with a fair die.
  • Alternative Hypothesis Ha:p>0.1667H_a: p > 0.1667 (Albert believes he rolls a 6 more often than expected).

The test is a one-sided (right-tailed) test.

Step (b): Calculate the p-value

To find the p-value, we can use the binomial test or approximate with a normal distribution, given that nn is sufficiently large.

  1. Expected Probability p0=0.1667p_0 = 0.1667.
  2. Observed Proportion p^=xn=630=0.2\hat{p} = \frac{x}{n} = \frac{6}{30} = 0.2.
  3. Standard Error of p^\hat{p} under the null hypothesis: SE=p0(1p0)n=0.1667×0.833330\text{SE} = \sqrt{\frac{p_0 (1 - p_0)}{n}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.1667 \times 0.8333}{30}}

Let's compute this standard error and use it to find the z-score and the p-value.The p-value for this test is approximately 0.3120.312.

Step (c): Conclusion at the 5% Significance Level

Since the p-value (0.312) is much larger than the significance level of 0.05, we do not have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis. Therefore, this sample does not provide sufficient evidence at the 5 percent level to conclude that Albert rolls a 6 more often than expected by chance.

Would you like a more detailed explanation of any part of this process?


Here are some related questions that can expand your understanding:

  1. How would the result change if the sample size nn were larger?
  2. What if Albert rolled a 6 more than 6 times out of 30—how would that affect the p-value?
  3. Why do we use a normal approximation in this test?
  4. How is a one-tailed test different from a two-tailed test in hypothesis testing?
  5. What other methods can we use to verify Albert's claim?

Tip: In hypothesis testing, a larger sample size generally provides more reliable evidence for or against a hypothesis.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Hypothesis Testing
Proportions
Binomial Distribution
Normal Approximation

Formulas

Standard Error of p-hat: SE = sqrt((p0 * (1 - p0)) / n)
Observed Proportion: p-hat = x / n
Z-score for proportions: Z = (p-hat - p0) / SE

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem
Normal Approximation to the Binomial Distribution

Suitable Grade Level

Undergraduate