Math Problem Statement

A coin was tossed 400 times and the head turned up 216 times. Is the coin unbiased at 5% level of significance (use Z_0.05 = 1.96)? (i) Yes (ii) No (iii) Cannot say

Solution

Let's solve the given problem step by step.

Problem:

We are testing whether the coin is unbiased (fair) at the 5% level of significance, with the provided Z0.05=1.96Z_{0.05} = 1.96.


Step 1: Hypotheses

  1. Null Hypothesis (H0H_0): The coin is unbiased, meaning p=0.5p = 0.5.
  2. Alternative Hypothesis (HaH_a): The coin is biased, meaning p0.5p \neq 0.5.

Step 2: Test Statistic

The test statistic for proportions is given by:

Z=p^p0p0(1p0)nZ = \frac{\hat{p} - p_0}{\sqrt{\frac{p_0 (1 - p_0)}{n}}}

Where:

  • p^\hat{p} = observed proportion of heads = Number of HeadsTotal Tosses=216400=0.54\frac{\text{Number of Heads}}{\text{Total Tosses}} = \frac{216}{400} = 0.54
  • p0p_0 = hypothesized proportion under H0H_0 = 0.5
  • nn = total number of tosses = 400

Substituting the values:

Z=0.540.50.5×(10.5)400Z = \frac{0.54 - 0.5}{\sqrt{\frac{0.5 \times (1 - 0.5)}{400}}}


Step 3: Simplify Calculation

  1. 0.5×0.5400=0.25400=0.000625=0.025\sqrt{\frac{0.5 \times 0.5}{400}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.25}{400}} = \sqrt{0.000625} = 0.025
  2. Z=0.040.025=1.6Z = \frac{0.04}{0.025} = 1.6

Step 4: Compare ZZ-value with Z0.05Z_{0.05}

  • Critical value: Z0.05=1.96Z_{0.05} = 1.96 (from the standard normal distribution for a 5% significance level).
  • Observed Z=1.6Z = 1.6.

Since Z=1.6|Z| = 1.6 is less than 1.961.96, we fail to reject the null hypothesis.


Step 5: Conclusion

At the 5% level of significance, there is insufficient evidence to conclude that the coin is biased. Therefore, the answer is:

(i) Yes, the coin is unbiased.


Would you like a detailed breakdown of this reasoning or further clarification? 😊

Related Questions:

  1. What would happen if the observed ZZ-value was greater than Z0.05Z_{0.05}?
  2. How is the formula for ZZ-value derived for proportions?
  3. What are Type I and Type II errors in hypothesis testing?
  4. How would the result change if we increased the sample size?
  5. What is the significance level, and why is it usually set at 5%?

Tip:

Always check the assumptions of your hypothesis test (e.g., large sample size or normality of the sampling distribution for proportions) to ensure the validity of your conclusions.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Hypothesis Testing
Proportions
Standard Normal Distribution

Formulas

Z = (p̂ - p₀) / √(p₀(1 - p₀) / n)

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem
Properties of the Standard Normal Distribution

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12 or Introductory College Level