Math Problem Statement

The following table includes the information about a monthly time series.

Month Time Series January 21 February 17 March 19 April 24 What is the forecast for May using the exponential smoothing method with α = 0.5? Multiple Choice

21.5

21

19

19.5

Solution

To forecast the value for May using the exponential smoothing method with α=0.5\alpha = 0.5, we use the formula:

Ft=αAt1+(1α)Ft1F_t = \alpha \cdot A_{t-1} + (1 - \alpha) \cdot F_{t-1}

Where:

  • FtF_t is the forecast for time tt.
  • At1A_{t-1} is the actual value at time t1t-1.
  • Ft1F_{t-1} is the forecast for time t1t-1.

For the initial forecast, F1F_1, we can use the actual value for January since no previous forecast is available. Let's start with FJanuary=AJanuary=21F_{January} = A_{January} = 21.

Now we can calculate the forecasts for the following months step-by-step:

  1. February forecast (F_{February}): FFebruary=αAJanuary+(1α)FJanuaryF_{February} = \alpha \cdot A_{January} + (1 - \alpha) \cdot F_{January} FFebruary=0.521+0.521F_{February} = 0.5 \cdot 21 + 0.5 \cdot 21 FFebruary=10.5+10.5F_{February} = 10.5 + 10.5 FFebruary=21F_{February} = 21

  2. March forecast (F_{March}): FMarch=αAFebruary+(1α)FFebruaryF_{March} = \alpha \cdot A_{February} + (1 - \alpha) \cdot F_{February} FMarch=0.517+0.521F_{March} = 0.5 \cdot 17 + 0.5 \cdot 21 FMarch=8.5+10.5F_{March} = 8.5 + 10.5 FMarch=19F_{March} = 19

  3. April forecast (F_{April}): FApril=αAMarch+(1α)FMarchF_{April} = \alpha \cdot A_{March} + (1 - \alpha) \cdot F_{March} FApril=0.519+0.519F_{April} = 0.5 \cdot 19 + 0.5 \cdot 19 FApril=9.5+9.5F_{April} = 9.5 + 9.5 FApril=19F_{April} = 19

  4. May forecast (F_{May}): FMay=αAApril+(1α)FAprilF_{May} = \alpha \cdot A_{April} + (1 - \alpha) \cdot F_{April} FMay=0.524+0.519F_{May} = 0.5 \cdot 24 + 0.5 \cdot 19 FMay=12+9.5F_{May} = 12 + 9.5 FMay=21.5F_{May} = 21.5

Thus, the forecast for May using the exponential smoothing method with α=0.5\alpha = 0.5 is 21.5.

Answer:

21.5

Would you like more details or have any questions?

Here are some related questions:

  1. How would the forecast change if α\alpha were 0.3 instead of 0.5?
  2. What is exponential smoothing, and why is it used in time series forecasting?
  3. Can you explain how the value of α\alpha affects the forecast in exponential smoothing?
  4. What are some other methods of time series forecasting?
  5. How can we measure the accuracy of our forecast?
  6. What is the difference between simple exponential smoothing and double exponential smoothing?
  7. Can you demonstrate exponential smoothing with a different set of data?
  8. How would you apply exponential smoothing to forecast seasonal data?

Tip:

When choosing the smoothing parameter α\alpha in exponential smoothing, a higher α\alpha gives more weight to recent observations, making the forecast more responsive to changes in the data. Conversely, a lower α\alpha makes the forecast smoother and less responsive to recent changes.

Ask a new question for Free

By Image

Drop file here or Click Here to upload

Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Exponential Smoothing
Time Series Forecasting

Formulas

Exponential Smoothing Formula: $F_t = \alpha \cdot A_{t-1} + (1 - \alpha) \cdot F_{t-1}$

Theorems

-

Suitable Grade Level

College