Math Problem Statement
The following table includes the information about a monthly time series.
Month Time Series January 21 February 17 March 19 April 24 What is the forecast for May using the exponential smoothing method with α = 0.5? Multiple Choice
21.5
21
19
19.5
Solution
To forecast the value for May using the exponential smoothing method with , we use the formula:
Where:
- is the forecast for time .
- is the actual value at time .
- is the forecast for time .
For the initial forecast, , we can use the actual value for January since no previous forecast is available. Let's start with .
Now we can calculate the forecasts for the following months step-by-step:
-
February forecast (F_{February}):
-
March forecast (F_{March}):
-
April forecast (F_{April}):
-
May forecast (F_{May}):
Thus, the forecast for May using the exponential smoothing method with is 21.5.
Answer:
21.5
Would you like more details or have any questions?
Here are some related questions:
- How would the forecast change if were 0.3 instead of 0.5?
- What is exponential smoothing, and why is it used in time series forecasting?
- Can you explain how the value of affects the forecast in exponential smoothing?
- What are some other methods of time series forecasting?
- How can we measure the accuracy of our forecast?
- What is the difference between simple exponential smoothing and double exponential smoothing?
- Can you demonstrate exponential smoothing with a different set of data?
- How would you apply exponential smoothing to forecast seasonal data?
Tip:
When choosing the smoothing parameter in exponential smoothing, a higher gives more weight to recent observations, making the forecast more responsive to changes in the data. Conversely, a lower makes the forecast smoother and less responsive to recent changes.
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Exponential Smoothing
Time Series Forecasting
Formulas
Exponential Smoothing Formula: $F_t = \alpha \cdot A_{t-1} + (1 - \alpha) \cdot F_{t-1}$
Theorems
-
Suitable Grade Level
College
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