Math Problem Statement

Let Z ∼ N(0, 1). Find E(Φ(Z)), where Φ(·) is the cumulative distribution function of

Z. [1/2]

Solution

Let ZN(0,1)Z \sim N(0,1) be a standard normal random variable, and let Φ()\Phi(\cdot) represent the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the standard normal distribution. We are tasked with finding E[Φ(Z)]E[\Phi(Z)], which is the expected value of Φ(Z)\Phi(Z).

Step-by-Step Solution:

  1. Interpretation of the Expectation: We need to compute: E[Φ(Z)]=Φ(z)fZ(z)dzE[\Phi(Z)] = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} \Phi(z) f_Z(z) dz where fZ(z)=12πez2/2f_Z(z) = \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}} e^{-z^2 / 2} is the probability density function (PDF) of the standard normal distribution.

  2. Properties of Φ(Z)\Phi(Z): By the definition of Φ(Z)\Phi(Z), for any real value zz: Φ(z)=P(Zz)=z12πet2/2dt\Phi(z) = P(Z \leq z) = \int_{-\infty}^{z} \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}} e^{-t^2 / 2} dt Since ZZ is symmetrically distributed around 0, its cumulative distribution at ZZ is centered around 0. Hence, the expectation of Φ(Z)\Phi(Z) can be thought of as the average probability that a standard normal random variable is less than some value ZZ.

  3. Symmetry and Mean: The random variable ZZ is symmetric, and the expected value of the CDF of ZZ over the entire distribution of ZZ should be 12\frac{1}{2}. This can be intuitively understood since ZZ has an equal probability of being less than or greater than 0, and the value of Φ(0)=12\Phi(0) = \frac{1}{2}.

Thus, the result is:

E[Φ(Z)]=12E[\Phi(Z)] = \frac{1}{2}

This is the final answer.

Would you like any additional details or clarifications?

Here are 5 related questions to expand your understanding:

  1. How do you derive the expected value of a function applied to a random variable?
  2. What is the significance of the cumulative distribution function in probability theory?
  3. How does the symmetry of a normal distribution affect expected values?
  4. Can this result generalize to non-standard normal distributions?
  5. What role does the mean and variance play in the shape of the normal distribution?

Tip: The symmetry of the normal distribution often simplifies complex expectations. Always check if symmetry can help reduce computational effort!

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Statistics
Expected Value
Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)
Normal Distribution

Formulas

E[Φ(Z)] = ∫_{-∞}^{∞} Φ(z) f_Z(z) dz
f_Z(z) = 1/√(2π) * e^{-z^2 / 2}
Φ(z) = P(Z ≤ z) = ∫_{-∞}^{z} 1/√(2π) * e^{-t^2 / 2} dt

Theorems

Symmetry of Normal Distribution
Expected Value Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Undergraduate (Statistics/Probability Theory)