Math Problem Statement

What is the expected value of Z, given that Y = 10, based on the provided joint probability distribution table?

Solution

We are tasked with finding the expected value of ZZ, given that Y=10Y = 10, based on the joint probability distribution.

Let's analyze the provided table first. We know that:

  • YY takes values 10 and 20.
  • ZZ takes values 29 and 21.

The relevant row for Y=10Y = 10 has the probabilities:

  • P(Y=10,Z=29)=0.2P(Y = 10, Z = 29) = 0.2
  • P(Y=10,Z=21)=0.1P(Y = 10, Z = 21) = 0.1

Step 1: Normalize the conditional probabilities

We first need to compute P(Z=zY=10)P(Z = z \mid Y = 10), which is the probability of ZZ given that Y=10Y = 10.

P(Z=29Y=10)=P(Y=10,Z=29)P(Y=10)=0.20.2+0.1=0.20.3=23P(Z = 29 \mid Y = 10) = \frac{P(Y = 10, Z = 29)}{P(Y = 10)} = \frac{0.2}{0.2 + 0.1} = \frac{0.2}{0.3} = \frac{2}{3} P(Z=21Y=10)=P(Y=10,Z=21)P(Y=10)=0.10.3=13P(Z = 21 \mid Y = 10) = \frac{P(Y = 10, Z = 21)}{P(Y = 10)} = \frac{0.1}{0.3} = \frac{1}{3}

Step 2: Compute the expected value

The expected value of ZZ, given that Y=10Y = 10, is calculated as:

E[ZY=10]=P(Z=29Y=10)×29+P(Z=21Y=10)×21E[Z \mid Y = 10] = P(Z = 29 \mid Y = 10) \times 29 + P(Z = 21 \mid Y = 10) \times 21 Substituting the values:

E[ZY=10]=23×29+13×21E[Z \mid Y = 10] = \frac{2}{3} \times 29 + \frac{1}{3} \times 21

Now, let's calculate this.The expected value of ZZ, given that Y=10Y = 10, is approximately 26.33.

Would you like to delve deeper into any of the steps? Here are five related questions that can expand your understanding:

  1. How would you calculate the marginal probability P(Z=29)P(Z = 29)?
  2. What is the expected value of ZZ given Y=20Y = 20?
  3. How do you calculate conditional probability in general?
  4. Can the expected value change if the joint probabilities for ZZ are different?
  5. What is the significance of the joint probability distribution in statistics?

Tip: Always ensure to normalize probabilities when working with conditional expectations to get accurate results.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Conditional Probability
Joint Distribution
Expected Value

Formulas

P(Z = z | Y = y) = P(Y = y, Z = z) / P(Y = y)
E[Z | Y = y] = Σ P(Z = z | Y = y) * z

Theorems

Law of Total Probability
Conditional Expectation

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12 or Introductory College Level