Math Problem Statement

During 20 weeks at the height of an influenza​ outbreak, the rate at which the number of cases of infection changed could be approximated by l'=- 6.26t+142.6 where I is the total number of infected people and t is time measured in weeks. estimate l(t), the total number of people who have contracted influenza by time t. Assume that l(0)=1418

Solution

We are given the rate of change of the total number of influenza cases over time, expressed as a function of time tt:

dIdt=I(t)=6.26t+142.6\frac{dI}{dt} = I'(t) = -6.26t + 142.6

We are also told that I(0)=1418I(0) = 1418, meaning that at t=0t = 0, 1418 people had already contracted influenza. We need to find the function I(t)I(t), which represents the total number of people infected by time tt.

Step 1: Integrate I(t)I'(t)

To find I(t)I(t), we integrate the given rate of change function with respect to tt:

I(t)=(6.26t+142.6)dtI(t) = \int (-6.26t + 142.6) \, dt

Step 2: Perform the integration

The integral of 6.26t+142.6-6.26t + 142.6 is:

I(t)=(6.26t)dt+142.6dtI(t) = \int (-6.26t) \, dt + \int 142.6 \, dt

This gives us:

I(t)=6.26t22+142.6t+CI(t) = -6.26 \cdot \frac{t^2}{2} + 142.6t + C

Simplifying:

I(t)=3.13t2+142.6t+CI(t) = -3.13t^2 + 142.6t + C

Step 3: Use initial condition to find CC

We know that I(0)=1418I(0) = 1418, so we substitute t=0t = 0 into the equation to solve for CC:

I(0)=3.13(0)2+142.6(0)+C=1418I(0) = -3.13(0)^2 + 142.6(0) + C = 1418

This simplifies to:

C=1418C = 1418

Step 4: Final equation for I(t)I(t)

Now, substituting C=1418C = 1418 into the equation for I(t)I(t), we get:

I(t)=3.13t2+142.6t+1418I(t) = -3.13t^2 + 142.6t + 1418

Thus, the total number of people who have contracted influenza by time tt is given by:

I(t)=3.13t2+142.6t+1418I(t) = -3.13t^2 + 142.6t + 1418

Do you have any questions, or would you like more details on any part of the process?


Here are 5 related questions to further your understanding:

  1. How would the total number of cases change if the rate of infection were a different function of tt?
  2. What does the negative quadratic term in I(t)I(t) tell you about the trend in the number of cases over time?
  3. How would the solution change if the initial condition were different, say I(0)=2000I(0) = 2000?
  4. What is the significance of the constant term 14181418 in the context of this outbreak?
  5. Can you find the maximum number of cases over the 20-week period?

Tip: When solving problems involving differential equations, always check if you are given initial conditions, as they are essential for finding the particular solution!

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Differential Equations
Integration
Initial Conditions

Formulas

I'(t) = -6.26t + 142.6
I(t) = -3.13t^2 + 142.6t + C
I(0) = 1418

Theorems

Fundamental Theorem of Calculus
Solving Initial Value Problems

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12 or introductory college level