Math Problem Statement

The logistic growth function f(t) = 111,000 / (1 + 4600e^(-kt)) describes the number of people, f(t), who have become ill with influenza t weeks after its initial outbreak. 1. How many people became ill when the epidemic began? 2. How many people were ill by the end of the fourth week? 3. What is the limiting size of the population that becomes ill?

Solution

The problem involves analyzing a logistic growth function:

f(t)=111,0001+4600ektf(t) = \frac{111,000}{1 + 4600e^{-k \cdot t}}

where f(t)f(t) describes the number of people infected with the flu after tt weeks.

Let's break this down step by step:

a. How many people became ill when the epidemic began?

At the beginning (t=0t = 0), substitute t=0t = 0 into the logistic growth function:

f(0)=111,0001+4600e0=111,0001+4600=111,0004601f(0) = \frac{111,000}{1 + 4600e^{0}} = \frac{111,000}{1 + 4600} = \frac{111,000}{4601}

Using this calculation:

f(0)24(rounded to the nearest whole number).f(0) \approx 24 \, (\text{rounded to the nearest whole number}).

b. How many people were ill by the end of the fourth week?

Substitute t=4t = 4 into the logistic growth function:

f(4)=111,0001+4600ek4f(4) = \frac{111,000}{1 + 4600e^{-k \cdot 4}}

If kk is not given, it is typically derived from data or approximated. Based on the image, the answer provided is:

f(4)1302(rounded to the nearest whole number).f(4) \approx 1302 \, (\text{rounded to the nearest whole number}).

c. What is the limiting size of the population that becomes ill?

The limiting value occurs as tt \to \infty. As ekt0e^{-k \cdot t} \to 0, the logistic function approaches:

f(t)111,0001+0=111,000.f(t) \to \frac{111,000}{1 + 0} = 111,000.

Thus, the limiting population size is:

f()=111,000(rounded to the nearest whole number).f(\infty) = 111,000 \, (\text{rounded to the nearest whole number}).

Final Answers:

a. 2424
b. 13021302
c. 111,000111,000


Let me know if you'd like a detailed explanation for the derivation or more questions about logistic growth!

Here are 5 related questions for further exploration:

  1. How does the value of kk affect the rate of growth in the logistic function?
  2. What is the doubling time of the infection based on this model?
  3. Can you calculate f(t)f(t) for t=2t = 2 weeks?
  4. What happens if the initial number of cases is doubled?
  5. How would the limiting population size change if the numerator in the function were different?

Tip: Always verify initial conditions (f(0)f(0)) in logistic functions to ensure accuracy of the model's constants.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Logistic Growth Model
Exponential Functions
Limits

Formulas

Logistic Growth Function: f(t) = L / (1 + Ce^(-kt))
Initial Value: f(0) = L / (1 + C)
Limiting Population: f(∞) = L

Theorems

Limit of Exponential Functions
Logistic Growth Model Analysis

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12 or Early College