Math Problem Statement

For a set of 70 coin flips, we record 21 heads and 49 tails.

If p is the true probability of heads, what is our best estimate for p here? What is our best estimate for the standard deviation?

Solution

Given the data from the 70 coin flips, we can use the following steps to estimate the probability pp of flipping heads and calculate the standard deviation:

1. Best Estimate for pp (Probability of Heads):

The best estimate for pp, the probability of getting heads, is the ratio of the number of heads to the total number of flips. This is simply the sample proportion:

p=Number of HeadsTotal Number of Flips=2170=0.3p = \frac{\text{Number of Heads}}{\text{Total Number of Flips}} = \frac{21}{70} = 0.3

So, the best estimate for pp is 0.3.

2. Best Estimate for the Standard Deviation:

The standard deviation of a binomial distribution is given by the formula:

σ=np(1p)\sigma = \sqrt{n \cdot p \cdot (1 - p)}

Where:

  • nn is the number of trials (70 coin flips),
  • pp is the estimated probability of heads (0.3).

Substituting the values:

σ=700.3(10.3)=700.30.7=14.73.83\sigma = \sqrt{70 \cdot 0.3 \cdot (1 - 0.3)} = \sqrt{70 \cdot 0.3 \cdot 0.7} = \sqrt{14.7} \approx 3.83

Thus, the best estimate for the standard deviation is 3.83.

Summary:

  • Best estimate for pp: 0.3
  • Best estimate for the standard deviation: 3.83

Would you like further details or have any questions?

Here are five questions to expand on this topic:

  1. How do we calculate the standard error of the proportion for this data?
  2. What would change if we observed 35 heads and 35 tails?
  3. Can we use confidence intervals to estimate pp more accurately?
  4. How would increasing the number of flips affect the standard deviation?
  5. What is the difference between binomial and normal approximation for such problems?

Tip: Always remember that the standard deviation measures the variability of outcomes around the mean in a binomial distribution!

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Binomial Distribution
Statistics

Formulas

p = (Number of Heads) / (Total Number of Flips)
Standard Deviation: σ = sqrt(n * p * (1 - p))

Theorems

Binomial Distribution

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 9-12