Math Problem Statement

Who is better at getting deals? Conditional probability problem based on a Money Magazine survey of 1,010 married adults.

Solution

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Problem Setup:

The exercise is about conditional probability, based on a survey conducted by Money Magazine involving 1,010 married adults with household incomes over $50,000. The survey asks, "Who is better at getting deals?" and breaks down responses by Husband, Wife, and We are equal.

Table Entries:

The table is organized by the respondent's answer (Husband or Wife) and the categories of responses (I am, My Spouse, We are equal). We need to complete this table and answer several questions.

Part (a): Joint Probability Table

You'll need to fill in the joint probability table. This means calculating the probability for each respondent (Husband/Wife) in each category (I am/My Spouse/We are Equal). Here's the approach:

  1. Calculate Totals:

    • For Husbands: 278+127+102278 + 127 + 102
    • For Wives: 290+111+102290 + 111 + 102
  2. Find Overall Total:

    • Add all values together to get the grand total.
  3. Joint Probabilities:

    • Each joint probability is calculated as the frequency divided by the total number of respondents (1,010).

Part (b): Marginal Probabilities

These are already given as:

  • Probability of "I Am" = 0.5624
  • Probability of "My Spouse" = 0.2356
  • Probability of "We Are Equal" = 0.2010

You will use these marginal probabilities to answer subsequent questions.

Part (c): Conditional Probability (Husband thinks he's better)

Given that the respondent is a husband, find the probability that he feels he is better at getting deals than his wife. This will be calculated by: P(I AmHusband)=P(I Am and Husband)P(Husband)P(\text{I Am} | \text{Husband}) = \frac{P(\text{I Am and Husband})}{P(\text{Husband})}

Part (d): Conditional Probability (Wife thinks she's better)

This is similar to part (c), but now you're looking for: P(I AmWife)=P(I Am and Wife)P(Wife)P(\text{I Am} | \text{Wife}) = \frac{P(\text{I Am and Wife})}{P(\text{Wife})}

Part (e): Conditional Probability (Response "My Spouse")

Given the response was "My Spouse," find the probability the response came from a husband. This uses: P(HusbandMy Spouse)=P(Husband and My Spouse)P(My Spouse)P(\text{Husband} | \text{My Spouse}) = \frac{P(\text{Husband and My Spouse})}{P(\text{My Spouse})}

Part (f): Conditional Probability (Response "We Are Equal")

Similar to part (e), but for "We Are Equal": P(HusbandWe Are Equal)=P(Husband and We Are Equal)P(We Are Equal)P(\text{Husband} | \text{We Are Equal}) = \frac{P(\text{Husband and We Are Equal})}{P(\text{We Are Equal})}


Would you like me to guide you further in calculating these values? Let me know if you'd like detailed steps for any specific part. Here are some follow-up questions that might help:

  1. How do you calculate joint probabilities using survey results?
  2. What is the significance of marginal probabilities in conditional probability questions?
  3. How does Bayes' Theorem apply to parts (e) and (f)?
  4. Why is it necessary to normalize by the total number of responses?
  5. What role do conditional probabilities play in real-world decision-making?

Tip: Always ensure that the probabilities sum up to 1 when working with joint or marginal distributions.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Conditional Probability
Joint Probability
Marginal Probability

Formulas

P(A | B) = P(A and B) / P(B)
P(Joint Probability) = Frequency / Total Respondents
Marginal Probability

Theorems

Bayes' Theorem
Law of Total Probability

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12, College