Math Problem Statement
Suppose an individual is randomly selected from the population of all adult males living in the United States. Let A be the event that the selected individual is over 6 ft in height, and let B be the event that the selected individ- ual is a professional basketball player. Which do you think is larger, P(AuB) or P(BuA)? Why?
Solution
To analyze the problem, let's define the events more clearly:
- : The event that a randomly selected individual is over 6 feet in height.
- : The event that a randomly selected individual is a professional basketball player.
You are comparing and , but these are the same thing because . This represents the probability that the selected individual is either over 6 feet in height or a professional basketball player (or both).
However, I believe the question is actually asking you to compare conditional probabilities:
- : The probability that the individual is over 6 feet tall, given that they are a professional basketball player.
- : The probability that the individual is a professional basketball player, given that they are over 6 feet tall.
Intuitive Answer:
-
: The vast majority of professional basketball players are over 6 feet tall. Thus, is very large, close to 1.
-
: While many men over 6 feet tall exist, only a tiny fraction of them are professional basketball players. Thus, is very small.
Conclusion:
- (the probability that the individual is over 6 feet tall given that they are a professional basketball player) is much larger than (the probability that the individual is a professional basketball player given that they are over 6 feet tall).
The reasoning is that being a professional basketball player almost guarantees that you're over 6 feet tall, but being over 6 feet tall does not guarantee you're a professional basketball player.
Would you like more details on how to calculate conditional probabilities?
Here are 5 related questions to explore further:
- How do you calculate the conditional probability using Bayes' Theorem?
- What is the difference between mutually exclusive and independent events?
- How would (the probability of being both over 6 feet and a professional basketball player) be determined?
- How do we compute if we know the probabilities of , , and ?
- How does the total probability of change if and are independent events?
Tip: Conditional probability is a key concept in statistics, often used in fields such as medicine, sports, and decision-making to assess the likelihood of events given prior information.
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Probability
Conditional Probability
Formulas
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)
P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B)
P(B | A) = P(B ∩ A) / P(A)
Theorems
Bayes' Theorem
Suitable Grade Level
Grades 10-12
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