Math Problem Statement

Suppose an individual is randomly selected from the population of all adult males living in the United States. Let A be the event that the selected individual is over 6 ft in height, and let B be the event that the selected individ- ual is a professional basketball player. Which do you think is larger, P(AuB) or P(BuA)? Why?

Solution

To analyze the problem, let's define the events more clearly:

  • AA: The event that a randomly selected individual is over 6 feet in height.
  • BB: The event that a randomly selected individual is a professional basketball player.

You are comparing P(AB)P(A \cup B) and P(BA)P(B \cup A), but these are the same thing because AB=BAA \cup B = B \cup A. This represents the probability that the selected individual is either over 6 feet in height or a professional basketball player (or both).

However, I believe the question is actually asking you to compare conditional probabilities:

  • P(AB)P(A | B): The probability that the individual is over 6 feet tall, given that they are a professional basketball player.
  • P(BA)P(B | A): The probability that the individual is a professional basketball player, given that they are over 6 feet tall.

Intuitive Answer:

  • P(AB)P(A | B): The vast majority of professional basketball players are over 6 feet tall. Thus, P(AB)P(A | B) is very large, close to 1.

  • P(BA)P(B | A): While many men over 6 feet tall exist, only a tiny fraction of them are professional basketball players. Thus, P(BA)P(B | A) is very small.

Conclusion:

  • P(AB)P(A | B) (the probability that the individual is over 6 feet tall given that they are a professional basketball player) is much larger than P(BA)P(B | A) (the probability that the individual is a professional basketball player given that they are over 6 feet tall).

The reasoning is that being a professional basketball player almost guarantees that you're over 6 feet tall, but being over 6 feet tall does not guarantee you're a professional basketball player.

Would you like more details on how to calculate conditional probabilities?


Here are 5 related questions to explore further:

  1. How do you calculate the conditional probability P(AB)P(A | B) using Bayes' Theorem?
  2. What is the difference between mutually exclusive and independent events?
  3. How would P(AB)P(A \cap B) (the probability of being both over 6 feet and a professional basketball player) be determined?
  4. How do we compute P(AB)P(A \cup B) if we know the probabilities of AA, BB, and ABA \cap B?
  5. How does the total probability of ABA \cup B change if AA and BB are independent events?

Tip: Conditional probability is a key concept in statistics, often used in fields such as medicine, sports, and decision-making to assess the likelihood of events given prior information.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Conditional Probability

Formulas

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)
P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B)
P(B | A) = P(B ∩ A) / P(A)

Theorems

Bayes' Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12