Math Problem Statement

All answers

Your statistics instructor would like to use a 6-sided die to choose the next quiz question. You suspect that the die is not fair, and you are conducting a multinomial Goodness-of-Fit hypothesis test at a significance level of 0.05. You drew 105 samples and recorded the observed frequencies.

Solution

Let's break down this problem step by step.

  1. Test to be used:

    • The test required for this problem is a Goodness-of-Fit Test, specifically the Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test. This is used to determine if the observed frequencies differ from the expected frequencies under the null hypothesis.
  2. Null and alternative hypotheses:

    • H0H_0 (null hypothesis): The die is fair, meaning each face has an equal probability p1=p2=p3=p4=p5=p6=16p_1 = p_2 = p_3 = p_4 = p_5 = p_6 = \frac{1}{6}.
    • H1H_1 (alternative hypothesis): At least one of the probabilities differs from 16\frac{1}{6}, i.e., the die is not fair.
  3. Expected Frequencies:

    • Total number of rolls = 105
    • Since each side of a fair die should appear with probability 16\frac{1}{6}, the expected frequency for each face is: Expected frequency=16×105=17.50\text{Expected frequency} = \frac{1}{6} \times 105 = 17.50 Thus, the expected frequency for each side (1 through 6) is 17.50.
  4. Degree of freedom:

    • The formula for degrees of freedom (df) is: df=(number of categories1)=61=5\text{df} = (\text{number of categories} - 1) = 6 - 1 = 5
  5. Chi-Square Test Statistic: The test statistic is calculated using the formula: χ2=(ObservedExpected)2Expected\chi^2 = \sum \frac{(\text{Observed} - \text{Expected})^2}{\text{Expected}} Let's calculate this step by step for each category (side of the die):

    • For side 1: (1717.5)217.5=(0.5)217.5=0.2517.5=0.0143\frac{(17 - 17.5)^2}{17.5} = \frac{(-0.5)^2}{17.5} = \frac{0.25}{17.5} = 0.0143
    • For side 2: (1617.5)217.5=(1.5)217.5=2.2517.5=0.1286\frac{(16 - 17.5)^2}{17.5} = \frac{(-1.5)^2}{17.5} = \frac{2.25}{17.5} = 0.1286
    • For side 3: (2617.5)217.5=(8.5)217.5=72.2517.5=4.1286\frac{(26 - 17.5)^2}{17.5} = \frac{(8.5)^2}{17.5} = \frac{72.25}{17.5} = 4.1286
    • For side 4: (817.5)217.5=(9.5)217.5=90.2517.5=5.1571\frac{(8 - 17.5)^2}{17.5} = \frac{(-9.5)^2}{17.5} = \frac{90.25}{17.5} = 5.1571
    • For side 5: (1817.5)217.5=(0.5)217.5=0.2517.5=0.0143\frac{(18 - 17.5)^2}{17.5} = \frac{(0.5)^2}{17.5} = \frac{0.25}{17.5} = 0.0143
    • For side 6: (2017.5)217.5=(2.5)217.5=6.2517.5=0.3571\frac{(20 - 17.5)^2}{17.5} = \frac{(2.5)^2}{17.5} = \frac{6.25}{17.5} = 0.3571

    Summing these values gives: χ2=0.0143+0.1286+4.1286+5.1571+0.0143+0.3571=9.79999.800\chi^2 = 0.0143 + 0.1286 + 4.1286 + 5.1571 + 0.0143 + 0.3571 = 9.7999 \approx 9.800

  6. P-value: Using a chi-square distribution table or a calculator with the chi-square distribution, you can find the p-value for χ2=9.8\chi^2 = 9.8 with 5 degrees of freedom. This gives: p-value0.0817\text{p-value} \approx 0.0817

  7. Conclusion:

    • The significance level α=0.05\alpha = 0.05.
    • Since the p-value (0.0817) is greater than α\alpha, we fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is insufficient evidence to suggest that the die is not fair.

Summary of Answers:

  1. Test: Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test
  2. Expected Frequencies: 17.50 for each side
  3. Degrees of Freedom: 5
  4. Test Statistic: 9.800
  5. P-value: 0.0817
  6. Conclusion: Fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Would you like to explore any specific step further or go into more detail?

Here are 5 related questions you might consider:

  1. How would the test change if the die had more sides?
  2. What would happen if we used a different significance level, such as α=0.01\alpha = 0.01?
  3. Can you explain how to interpret the degrees of freedom in chi-square tests?
  4. How is the chi-square distribution related to the normal distribution?
  5. What is the importance of ensuring the sample size is large enough in such tests?

Tip: In any hypothesis test, always compare the p-value with the significance level to determine if you reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Goodness-of-Fit Test
Chi-Square Test
Hypothesis Testing
Multinomial Distribution

Formulas

Chi-Square Test Statistic: χ² = Σ (Observed - Expected)² / Expected
Expected Frequency = Total Samples / Number of Categories
Degrees of Freedom = Number of Categories - 1

Theorems

Chi-Square Distribution
Null and Alternative Hypotheses

Suitable Grade Level

Undergraduate statistics or high school advanced level