Math Problem Statement

A forecasting method has produced the following over the past five months. What is the mean absolute deviation?

B) -1.0 C) 0.0 D) 1.2 E) 8.6

Solution

To calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) for a forecast, we use the formula:

MAD=ActualForecastn\text{MAD} = \frac{\sum | \text{Actual} - \text{Forecast} |}{n}

where:

  • nn is the number of periods (in this case, five months).
  • ActualForecast| \text{Actual} - \text{Forecast} | represents the absolute error for each month.

To solve this accurately, I would need the actual and forecasted values for each of the five months to compute the absolute deviations and their mean. If you could provide these values, I can walk through each step of the calculation and confirm which option (B, C, D, or E) is correct.

Would you like to share the data for further calculation?


Here are five related questions that explore this topic further:

  1. What is the significance of the mean absolute deviation in forecasting?
  2. How does MAD compare to other error metrics like mean squared error?
  3. In what scenarios might a zero or negative MAD be relevant?
  4. How does MAD help in improving forecasting models?
  5. What are the implications of a high MAD on decision-making?

Tip: MAD is valuable for understanding forecast accuracy because it avoids complications from squared values, providing a direct view of average errors.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Forecasting
Mean Absolute Deviation
Statistics

Formulas

MAD = Σ |Actual - Forecast| / n

Theorems

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Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12