Math Problem Statement

A company has actual unit demand for three consecutive years of 214, 216, and 226. The respective forecasts for the same three years are 210, 200, and 230. Which of the following is the resulting MAD value that can be computed from these data? -5.33 -8 5.33 8 None of these

Solution

To calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), we need to find the absolute deviations between the actual values and forecasted values for each year, then calculate their average.

  1. Calculate Absolute Deviations for Each Year:

    • Year 1: |214 - 210| = 4
    • Year 2: |216 - 200| = 16
    • Year 3: |226 - 230| = 4
  2. Calculate the MAD:

    • Sum of Absolute Deviations = 4 + 16 + 4 = 24
    • MAD = Total Absolute Deviation / Number of Observations = 243=8\frac{24}{3} = 8

So, the resulting MAD value is 8.

Answer: 8


Would you like a breakdown of MAD in different forecasting scenarios or have any questions?

  1. How would MAD differ with a larger dataset?
  2. What are alternative measures to MAD for assessing forecast accuracy?
  3. How can outliers affect MAD and similar accuracy metrics?
  4. What is the significance of the MAD value in decision-making?
  5. How can MAD be useful in inventory management?

Tip: MAD is often used to evaluate forecast accuracy because it is simple and intuitive, highlighting typical forecast errors without regard to direction (positive or negative).

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Forecast Accuracy
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Error Measurement

Formulas

MAD = Sum of Absolute Deviations / Number of Observations

Theorems

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Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12