Math Problem Statement

After running regression on the sales' data of a chain department store, we get the following model:

y=13.2+6.1x1+0.3x2+1.2Q1−1.7Q2+2.6Q3

where:

y is sales in million dollars

x1 is the store size in 1000 sq ft

x2 is the number of years the store has been open, and

Qi's are dummy variables that is 1 if quarter = i ; and 0 otherwise.

In answering the following questions, pay attention to units of x1 and y, and signs of coefficients. How to solve in excel: What is the expected sales difference between Q2 and Q3? Which quarter is expected to be higher?

Group of answer choices

$900,000, Q2

$4.3 million, Q3

$900,000, Q3

$4.3 million, Q2

Solution

We are given the regression model:

y=13.2+6.1x1+0.3x2+1.2Q11.7Q2+2.6Q3y = 13.2 + 6.1x_1 + 0.3x_2 + 1.2Q_1 − 1.7Q_2 + 2.6Q_3

where:

  • yy is the sales in million dollars.
  • x1x_1 is the store size in 1000 square feet.
  • x2x_2 is the number of years the store has been open.
  • QiQ_i are dummy variables representing the quarters (1 for the specified quarter, 0 otherwise).

Step-by-Step Approach:

To calculate the expected sales difference between Q2 and Q3, we need to look at the coefficients associated with these quarters:

  • Coefficient for Q2=1.7Q_2 = -1.7
  • Coefficient for Q3=2.6Q_3 = 2.6

The sales difference between Q2 and Q3 is determined by the difference in their coefficients. The rest of the variables (store size, years open) are not relevant for this comparison since they remain constant across quarters.

Sales Difference=Coefficient of Q3Coefficient of Q2\text{Sales Difference} = \text{Coefficient of } Q_3 - \text{Coefficient of } Q_2

Sales Difference=2.6(1.7)=2.6+1.7=4.3 million dollars\text{Sales Difference} = 2.6 - (-1.7) = 2.6 + 1.7 = 4.3 \text{ million dollars}

Thus, the expected sales difference between Q2 and Q3 is $4.3 million.

Which quarter is expected to be higher?

Since the coefficient for Q3Q_3 (2.6) is larger than the coefficient for Q2Q_2 (-1.7), the sales in Q3 are expected to be higher.

Conclusion:

  • The expected sales difference between Q2 and Q3 is $4.3 million.
  • Q3 is expected to have higher sales.

Thus, the correct answer is:

$4.3 million, Q3.

Would you like detailed steps on how to perform these calculations in Excel?


Here are five questions to extend this topic:

  1. How does the size of the store (x1x_1) affect sales according to the model?
  2. What would be the expected sales for a store in Q1?
  3. How would the regression model change if you added a fifth dummy variable for a new quarter?
  4. Can this model predict sales for a brand-new store? Why or why not?
  5. How would negative coefficients for quarters impact sales predictions?

Tip: In regression models, dummy variables allow categorical data (like quarters) to be included as numerical predictors.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Linear Regression
Dummy Variables
Sales Forecasting
Comparison of Regression Coefficients

Formulas

y = 13.2 + 6.1x1 + 0.3x2 + 1.2Q1 − 1.7Q2 + 2.6Q3
Sales Difference = Coefficient of Q3 - Coefficient of Q2

Theorems

Linear Regression Analysis
Dummy Variable Interpretation

Suitable Grade Level

College or Business Math