Math Problem Statement

Using a 3-month moving average, the forecast value for October made at the end of September in the following time series would be:

July

12

Aug

5

Sept

7

Oct

11

Question 4 options:

1) 

7.67

2) 

8

3) 

9

4) 

6.89

5) 

7.25

Solution

To calculate a 3-month moving average forecast for October, you need to average the values from the previous three months (July, August, and September).

Here are the values for those months:

  • July: 12
  • August: 5
  • September: 7

The 3-month moving average forecast for October is calculated as:

Forecast for October=12+5+73=243=8\text{Forecast for October} = \frac{12 + 5 + 7}{3} = \frac{24}{3} = 8

So, the correct answer is:

2) 8

Would you like more details or have any other questions? Here are 5 related questions you might find interesting:

  1. How does the length of the moving average window affect the forecast?
  2. What are the limitations of using a simple moving average for forecasting?
  3. How would you compute a weighted moving average, and why might it be preferred?
  4. How would you adjust the moving average calculation if the data has seasonality?
  5. What is the difference between a simple moving average and an exponential moving average?

Tip: Moving averages smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight longer-term trends or cycles. Choosing the right window length is crucial for balancing responsiveness with smoothness.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Time Series Analysis
Moving Average

Formulas

Moving Average Formula

Theorems

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Suitable Grade Level

Advanced High School