Math Problem Statement
Solution
To assist with the mathematical questions in the image, I'll solve them step-by-step:
1. Branching Process
(i) Generating Function
The generating function for , given with the specified probabilities, is:
Substituting the given probabilities:
(ii) Probability of Extinction Using Total Probability Law
Let be the probability of extinction. Using the law of total probability:
The generating function gives the simplification:
The equation must be solved to find , which represents the probability of extinction.
(iii) Probability of Extinction
This corresponds to finding the smallest non-negative root of the equation . Solve numerically or algebraically:
Rearranging:
This cubic equation gives as a trivial root, which corresponds to the extinction probability if there are no further individuals. Other roots may also need verification depending on the process context.
2. Simple Random Walk
(i) Using Total Probability for
Let be the first hitting time of zero for . Using total probability and the fact that with equal probabilities:
Given symmetry, , so:
(ii) Showing
The generating function for satisfies the recurrence:
From part (i), , so:
(iii) Generating Function for (for )
Define as the first hitting time of . The recurrence relation for depends on the state and follows similar logic. The generating function can be derived as a function of and analyzed for specific values of .
Would you like detailed numerical solutions or expansions for these steps? Here are five related questions you might want to explore:
- How can we numerically solve the cubic equation for extinction probability?
- Can we generalize for other branching processes?
- What are the conditions under which extinction is certain?
- How do we interpret in the context of first hitting times?
- How does the random walk's behavior change as increases?
Tip: Generating functions are powerful tools for solving recurrence relations and analyzing probabilities systematically.
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Branching Processes
Probability Theory
Generating Functions
Random Walks
Law of Total Probability
Formulas
Generating Function G_X(t) = E[t^X] = Σ P(X=k)t^k
Extinction Probability: η = G_X(η)
Random Walk Recurrence: P(T_0=n) = P(T_1=n-1)
Generating Function G_0(t) = tG_1(t)
Theorems
Law of Total Probability
Generating Function Analysis for Random Walks
Suitable Grade Level
Undergraduate Level
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