Math Problem Statement
The most important measure in any business is a successful purchase of their product. Task success is a discrete measure (0 is fail, 1 is successful purchase). The following table shows a discrete distribution across 100 clients for product purchase.
Table 3
X (purchase success)
P(probability purchase)
0
0.05
1
0.2
2
0.3
3
0.45 What is the binomial probability that you find less than 10 clients who will buy your extended warranty if you present to 79 clients, and the probability of a client buying a warranty after your presentation is 20 percent.
Solution
To solve this problem, we use the binomial probability formula:
Where:
- is the number of trials (79 clients),
- is the number of successes (less than 10 clients buying the warranty),
- is the probability of success for a single trial (20% = 0.2),
- is the binomial coefficient (number of combinations).
We are asked to find the probability of fewer than 10 clients buying the warranty. This is the cumulative probability:
Steps:
- Compute the binomial probabilities for .
- Sum these probabilities to get .
Let me compute this. scipy.stats import binom
Parameters
n = 79 # number of trials p = 0.2 # probability of success k_values = range(10) # values from 0 to 9
Compute cumulative probability P(X < 10)
probability_less_than_10 = sum(binom.pmf(k, n, p) for k in k_values) probability_less_than_10The binomial probability that fewer than 10 clients out of 79 will buy your extended warranty, given a 20% probability of success, is approximately 0.0322 (3.22%).
This indicates a low likelihood of observing fewer than 10 successes.
Would you like a step-by-step explanation or further calculations? Here are 5 related questions you might explore:
- What is the probability of exactly 10 clients purchasing the warranty?
- How does the probability change if the success rate increases to 30%?
- What is the expected number of clients buying the warranty in this scenario?
- Can you compute the variance and standard deviation of this binomial distribution?
- How would the probability change for a different number of clients?
Tip: For large sample sizes and low probabilities, consider using a Poisson approximation to simplify calculations.
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Probability
Binomial Distribution
Cumulative Probability
Formulas
P(X = k) = nCk * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k)
P(X < k) = Σ P(X = i) for i = 0 to k-1
Theorems
Binomial Probability Theorem
Suitable Grade Level
Grades 11-12 or College
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