Math Problem Statement

The most important measure in any business is a successful purchase of their product. Task success is a discrete measure (0 is fail, 1 is successful purchase). The following table shows a discrete distribution across 100 clients for product purchase.

Table 3

X (purchase success)

P(probability purchase)

0

0.05

1

0.2

2

0.3

3

0.45 What is the binomial probability that you find less than 10 clients who will buy your extended warranty if you present to 79 clients, and the probability of a client buying a warranty after your presentation is 20 percent.

Solution

To solve this problem, we use the binomial probability formula:

P(X=k)=(nk)pk(1p)nkP(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k}

Where:

  • nn is the number of trials (79 clients),
  • kk is the number of successes (less than 10 clients buying the warranty),
  • pp is the probability of success for a single trial (20% = 0.2),
  • (nk)\binom{n}{k} is the binomial coefficient (number of combinations).

We are asked to find the probability of fewer than 10 clients buying the warranty. This is the cumulative probability:

P(X<10)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)++P(X=9)P(X < 10) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + \dots + P(X = 9)

Steps:

  1. Compute the binomial probabilities for k=0,1,2,,9k = 0, 1, 2, \dots, 9.
  2. Sum these probabilities to get P(X<10)P(X < 10).

Let me compute this. scipy.stats import binom

Parameters

n = 79 # number of trials p = 0.2 # probability of success k_values = range(10) # values from 0 to 9

Compute cumulative probability P(X < 10)

probability_less_than_10 = sum(binom.pmf(k, n, p) for k in k_values) probability_less_than_10The binomial probability that fewer than 10 clients out of 79 will buy your extended warranty, given a 20% probability of success, is approximately 0.0322 (3.22%).

This indicates a low likelihood of observing fewer than 10 successes.

Would you like a step-by-step explanation or further calculations? Here are 5 related questions you might explore:

  1. What is the probability of exactly 10 clients purchasing the warranty?
  2. How does the probability change if the success rate increases to 30%?
  3. What is the expected number of clients buying the warranty in this scenario?
  4. Can you compute the variance and standard deviation of this binomial distribution?
  5. How would the probability change for a different number of clients?

Tip: For large sample sizes and low probabilities, consider using a Poisson approximation to simplify calculations.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Binomial Distribution
Cumulative Probability

Formulas

P(X = k) = nCk * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k)
P(X < k) = Σ P(X = i) for i = 0 to k-1

Theorems

Binomial Probability Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12 or College