Math Problem Statement

This problem follows a binomial distribution with ( n = 17 ) properties and a success probability ( p = 0.3 ). We want the probability of selling more than 4 properties, which is ( P(X > 4) ).

First, calculate ( P(X \leq 4) ) using the binomial probability formula:

[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} ]

Then subtract from 1 to find ( P(X > 4) ). This requires calculating ( P(X = 0) ) through ( P(X = 4) ):

  1. ( P(X = 0) )
  2. ( P(X = 1) )
  3. ( P(X = 2) )
  4. ( P(X = 3) )
  5. ( P(X = 4) )

Summing these and subtracting from 1:

[ P(X > 4) = 1 - \sum_{k=0}^{4} P(X = k) ]

Computing this, we find:

[ P(X > 4) \approx 0.7477 ]

Thus, the probability is approximately 0.7477.

Solution

Let's break down this binomial distribution problem to find P(X>4)P(X > 4).

Given:

  • n=17n = 17 (the number of trials),
  • p=0.3p = 0.3 (the probability of success in a single trial),
  • We want to calculate P(X>4)P(X > 4), where XX is the number of successes.

Step 1: Calculate P(X4)P(X \leq 4)

Using the binomial probability formula: P(X=k)=(nk)pk(1p)nkP(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} we need to compute P(X=0)P(X = 0) through P(X=4)P(X = 4), then sum these probabilities to get P(X4)P(X \leq 4).

Calculations:

  1. P(X=0)P(X = 0): P(X=0)=(170)(0.3)0(0.7)17=11(0.7)170.00526P(X = 0) = \binom{17}{0} (0.3)^0 (0.7)^{17} = 1 \cdot 1 \cdot (0.7)^{17} \approx 0.00526

  2. P(X=1)P(X = 1): P(X=1)=(171)(0.3)1(0.7)16=170.3(0.7)160.03828P(X = 1) = \binom{17}{1} (0.3)^1 (0.7)^{16} = 17 \cdot 0.3 \cdot (0.7)^{16} \approx 0.03828

  3. P(X=2)P(X = 2): P(X=2)=(172)(0.3)2(0.7)15=136(0.3)2(0.7)150.11798P(X = 2) = \binom{17}{2} (0.3)^2 (0.7)^{15} = 136 \cdot (0.3)^2 \cdot (0.7)^{15} \approx 0.11798

  4. P(X=3)P(X = 3): P(X=3)=(173)(0.3)3(0.7)14=680(0.3)3(0.7)140.21026P(X = 3) = \binom{17}{3} (0.3)^3 (0.7)^{14} = 680 \cdot (0.3)^3 \cdot (0.7)^{14} \approx 0.21026

  5. P(X=4)P(X = 4): P(X=4)=(174)(0.3)4(0.7)13=2380(0.3)4(0.7)130.24578P(X = 4) = \binom{17}{4} (0.3)^4 (0.7)^{13} = 2380 \cdot (0.3)^4 \cdot (0.7)^{13} \approx 0.24578

Step 2: Sum these probabilities

P(X4)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3)+P(X=4)P(X \leq 4) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) P(X4)0.00526+0.03828+0.11798+0.21026+0.24578=0.61756P(X \leq 4) \approx 0.00526 + 0.03828 + 0.11798 + 0.21026 + 0.24578 = 0.61756

Step 3: Calculate P(X>4)P(X > 4)

P(X>4)=1P(X4)=10.61756=0.38244P(X > 4) = 1 - P(X \leq 4) = 1 - 0.61756 = 0.38244

So, the probability of selling more than 4 properties is approximately 0.3824.


Relative Questions:

  1. What happens to the probability P(X>4)P(X > 4) if the success probability pp is increased?
  2. How does increasing nn to 20 change the probability P(X>4)P(X > 4)?
  3. What is the variance of this binomial distribution with n=17n = 17 and p=0.3p = 0.3?
  4. How would the probability change if we are interested in P(X>7)P(X > 7) instead of P(X>4)P(X > 4)?
  5. What is the expected value E(X)E(X) for this distribution?

Tip:

When dealing with binomial probabilities, always check if the cumulative distribution tables or software tools are available to ease manual computations, especially for large nn values.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Binomial Distribution
Cumulative Probability

Formulas

P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k}
P(X > 4) = 1 - P(X \leq 4)

Theorems

Binomial Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12