Math Problem Statement

A real estate agent has 18 properties that she shows. She feels that there is a 40% chance of selling any one property during a week. The chance of selling any one property is independent of selling another property. Compute the probability of selling more than 2 properties in one week. Round your answer to four decimal places.

Solution

This problem can be modeled using the binomial distribution. The situation is as follows:

  • The number of trials nn is 18 (the number of properties shown).
  • The probability of success on a single trial pp is 0.40 (the chance of selling a property).
  • We are interested in the probability of selling more than 2 properties, which means we want to find P(X>2)P(X > 2), where XX is the number of properties sold.

The probability mass function (PMF) of a binomial distribution is given by:

P(X=k)=(nk)pk(1p)nkP(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k}

Where:

  • n=18n = 18
  • p=0.40p = 0.40
  • kk is the number of properties sold (we'll calculate P(X>2)P(X > 2)).

We need to compute P(X>2)P(X > 2), which is the complement of P(X2)P(X \leq 2):

P(X>2)=1P(X2)P(X > 2) = 1 - P(X \leq 2)

Where:

P(X2)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)P(X \leq 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)

Now, let's compute these individual probabilities:

Step 1: Calculate P(X=0)P(X = 0), P(X=1)P(X = 1), and P(X=2)P(X = 2)

  1. P(X=0)=(180)(0.40)0(0.60)18P(X = 0) = \binom{18}{0} (0.40)^0 (0.60)^{18}
  2. P(X=1)=(181)(0.40)1(0.60)17P(X = 1) = \binom{18}{1} (0.40)^1 (0.60)^{17}
  3. P(X=2)=(182)(0.40)2(0.60)16P(X = 2) = \binom{18}{2} (0.40)^2 (0.60)^{16}

Step 2: Use the complement rule to find P(X>2)P(X > 2)

Once the individual probabilities are calculated, we subtract their sum from 1 to get the desired probability.

Let me calculate these values for you. math

Given values

n = 18 # Number of properties shown p = 0.40 # Probability of selling one property q = 1 - p # Probability of not selling a property

Binomial probability function

def binomial_prob(n, k, p): return math.comb(n, k) * (p ** k) * (q ** (n - k))

Calculate P(X = 0), P(X = 1), and P(X = 2)

P_X_0 = binomial_prob(n, 0, p) P_X_1 = binomial_prob(n, 1, p) P_X_2 = binomial_prob(n, 2, p)

Calculate P(X <= 2)

P_X_leq_2 = P_X_0 + P_X_1 + P_X_2

Calculate P(X > 2)

P_X_gt_2 = 1 - P_X_leq_2 P_X_gt_2_rounded = round(P_X_gt_2, 4)

P_X_gt_2_roundedThe probability of selling more than 2 properties in one week is approximately 0.9918.

Let me know if you'd like further details or have any other questions!

Additional Questions:

  1. How do the binomial distribution and normal distribution compare for this type of problem?
  2. What is the probability of selling exactly 5 properties in a week?
  3. How would the probability change if the chance of selling a property was 50% instead of 40%?
  4. What is the expected number of properties sold in a week?
  5. How can you use the Poisson distribution to approximate this problem if the number of trials is very large?

Tip:

If you're working with binomial probabilities and the number of trials is large, you can often approximate the binomial distribution with a normal distribution for easier calculations.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Binomial Distribution

Formulas

Binomial Probability Mass Function: P(X = k) = nCk * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k)
Complement Rule: P(X > k) = 1 - P(X ≤ k)

Theorems

Binomial Theorem
Complement Rule

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12