Math Problem Statement

A pharmaceutical company knows that five percent of all users of a certain drug experience a serious side effect. A researcher examines a sample of 280 users of the drug. What is the probability of finding between 8 and 12 cases with side effects? What is the probability of finding more than 16 cases with side effects?

Solution

This problem seems to be asking about binomial probability, where 5% of users experience side effects, and a sample of 280 users is examined. The two parts of the question focus on calculating specific probabilities:

  1. For part (a): We are asked to calculate the probability of finding between 8 and 12 cases with side effects.
  2. For part (b): We need to determine the probability of finding more than 16 cases with side effects.

To solve these, we can use the binomial distribution formula, but given that the numbers involved are large, a normal approximation to the binomial distribution can be used.

Step-by-Step Process:

Step 1: Parameters for the binomial distribution

  • n = 280 (number of users)
  • p = 0.05 (probability of a user experiencing a side effect)

We will need to approximate this using a normal distribution. The mean (μ) and standard deviation (σ) of the binomial distribution are calculated as follows:

  • μ = n * p = 280 * 0.05 = 14
  • σ = √(n * p * (1 - p)) = √(280 * 0.05 * 0.95) ≈ 7.613

Step 2: Apply the normal approximation

For part (a), we want to find the probability of observing between 8 and 12 cases. We will use a continuity correction for the normal approximation.

  • For X=8X = 8, we approximate P(X7.5)P(X \geq 7.5)
  • For X=12X = 12, we approximate P(X12.5)P(X \leq 12.5)

We then use the z-score formula for each value: z=xμσz = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma} where xx is the value of interest.

Step 3: Calculate probabilities for part (a) and part (b)

We'll use the z-scores to find the corresponding probabilities from the standard normal distribution table or a calculator.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Binomial Distribution
Normal Approximation

Formulas

Binomial Distribution Formula
Normal Approximation Formula
Z-score Formula

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem
Normal Approximation to Binomial Distribution

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12