Math Problem Statement

Brianna is taking part in a lottery for a room in one of two new dormitories at her college. She will draw a card randomly to determine which room she will have. Each card has the name of a dormitory, (X)avier or (Y)oung, and also a two-person room number or an apartment number. Forty percent of the available spaces are in X. Seventy percent of the available spaces in X are rooms, and 20% of the spaces in Y are rooms. If Brianna gets a room, what is the probability that she is in dorm Y?

Solution

Let's break down the problem using the information provided and the tree diagram. We need to find the probability that Brianna is in dorm Y, given that she has a room. This is a conditional probability problem.

We are given:

  • P(X) = 0.4 (Probability that Brianna is in dorm X)
  • P(Y) = 0.6 (Probability that Brianna is in dorm Y)
  • P(Room | X) = 0.7 (Probability of a room in X)
  • P(Room | Y) = 0.2 (Probability of a room in Y)

We are asked to find:
P(Y | Room) (Probability that Brianna is in dorm Y, given that she has a room).

We can use Bayes' Theorem for this:

P(YRoom)=P(RoomY)P(Y)P(Room)P(Y | Room) = \frac{P(Room | Y) \cdot P(Y)}{P(Room)}

Where P(Room) is the total probability of getting a room, which is calculated as:

P(Room)=P(RoomX)P(X)+P(RoomY)P(Y)P(Room) = P(Room | X) \cdot P(X) + P(Room | Y) \cdot P(Y)

Now, let's calculate each term:

  1. P(Room | X) \cdot P(X) = 0.7 * 0.4 = 0.28
  2. P(Room | Y) \cdot P(Y) = 0.2 * 0.6 = 0.12
  3. P(Room) = 0.28 + 0.12 = 0.4

Now, applying Bayes' Theorem:

P(YRoom)=0.20.60.4=0.120.4=0.3P(Y | Room) = \frac{0.2 \cdot 0.6}{0.4} = \frac{0.12}{0.4} = 0.3

So, the probability that Brianna is in dorm Y, given that she has a room, is 0.3.

Let me know if you need any further explanation or details! Would you like me to expand on the steps involved? Here are some related questions for you:

  1. How would the probability change if the probabilities for rooms in X and Y were reversed?
  2. How can we apply Bayes' Theorem to other types of conditional probability problems?
  3. What would happen if Brianna was more likely to get an apartment instead of a room in dorm Y?
  4. How do you calculate the total probability for events with more than two possibilities?
  5. How could this type of problem be extended to multiple dorms and room types?

Tip: Always verify your total probability (P(Room)) before applying Bayes' Theorem to ensure correctness in calculations!

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Conditional Probability
Bayes' Theorem

Formulas

Bayes' Theorem: P(A|B) = (P(B|A) * P(A)) / P(B)
Total Probability: P(B) = P(B|A1)*P(A1) + P(B|A2)*P(A2)

Theorems

Bayes' Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12