Math Problem Statement
Use the fact that the mean of a geometric distribution is
muμequals=StartFraction 1 Over p EndFraction1p
and the variance is
sigma squared equals StartFraction q Over p squared EndFractionσ2=qp2.
A daily number lottery chooses
threethree
balls numbered 0 to 9. The probability of winning the lottery is
StartFraction 1 Over 1000 EndFraction11000.
Let x be the number of times you play the lottery before winning the first time.
(a) Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation. (b) How many times would you expect to have to play the lottery before winning? It costs $1 to play and winners are paid
$800800.
Would you expect to make or lose money playing this lottery? Explain.
Solution
To solve the problem involving the geometric distribution for the daily number lottery, we can apply the formulas for the mean and variance.
Given:
- Probability of winning (p) =
- Probability of losing (q) =
(a) Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation
-
Mean (μ):
-
Variance (σ²):
-
Standard Deviation (σ):
Summary of Results:
- Mean (μ): 1000
- Variance (σ²): 999000
- Standard Deviation (σ): Approximately 999.5
(b) Expected Plays and Profit/Loss
- Expected number of plays before winning: 1000
To evaluate whether you would expect to make or lose money:
- Cost per play: $1
- Expected cost before winning: dollars.
- Winning payout: $800
Net Expected Value:
Conclusion:
You would expect to lose $200 on average for every 1000 plays.
Questions for Further Exploration:
- How would the expected number of plays change if the winning probability increased?
- What would be the variance if the lottery had a different payout structure?
- How does the expected value change with multiple tickets bought per draw?
- What are the implications of playing this lottery over the long term?
- How could one optimize their strategy in lotteries with different rules?
Tip: Always consider the expected value and variance when evaluating games of chance to make informed decisions. Would you like more details on any part of this?
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Probability
Statistics
Geometric Distribution
Formulas
Mean: μ = 1/p
Variance: σ² = q/p²
Standard Deviation: σ = √(σ²)
Theorems
Properties of Geometric Distribution
Suitable Grade Level
Grades 10-12
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