Math Problem Statement

Use the fact that the mean of a geometric distribution is

muμequals=StartFraction 1 Over p EndFraction1p

and the variance is

sigma squared equals StartFraction q Over p squared EndFractionσ2=qp2.

A daily number lottery chooses

threethree

balls numbered 0 to 9. The probability of winning the lottery is

StartFraction 1 Over 1000 EndFraction11000.

Let x be the number of times you play the lottery before winning the first time.

​(a) Find the​ mean, variance, and standard deviation.​ (b) How many times would you expect to have to play the lottery before​ winning? It costs​ $1 to play and winners are paid

​$800800.

Would you expect to make or lose money playing this​ lottery? Explain.

Solution

To solve the problem involving the geometric distribution for the daily number lottery, we can apply the formulas for the mean and variance.

Given:

  • Probability of winning (p) = 11000\frac{1}{1000}
  • Probability of losing (q) = 1p=99910001 - p = \frac{999}{1000}

(a) Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation

  1. Mean (μ): μ=1p=111000=1000\mu = \frac{1}{p} = \frac{1}{\frac{1}{1000}} = 1000

  2. Variance (σ²): σ2=qp2=9991000(11000)2=999100021000=999000\sigma^2 = \frac{q}{p^2} = \frac{\frac{999}{1000}}{\left(\frac{1}{1000}\right)^2} = \frac{999 \cdot 1000^2}{1000} = 999000

  3. Standard Deviation (σ): σ=σ2=999000999.5\sigma = \sqrt{\sigma^2} = \sqrt{999000} \approx 999.5

Summary of Results:

  • Mean (μ): 1000
  • Variance (σ²): 999000
  • Standard Deviation (σ): Approximately 999.5

(b) Expected Plays and Profit/Loss

  • Expected number of plays before winning: 1000

To evaluate whether you would expect to make or lose money:

  1. Cost per play: $1
  2. Expected cost before winning: 1000×1=10001000 \times 1 = 1000 dollars.
  3. Winning payout: $800

Net Expected Value: Net Expected Value=Winning payoutExpected cost=8001000=200\text{Net Expected Value} = \text{Winning payout} - \text{Expected cost} = 800 - 1000 = -200

Conclusion:

You would expect to lose $200 on average for every 1000 plays.

Questions for Further Exploration:

  1. How would the expected number of plays change if the winning probability increased?
  2. What would be the variance if the lottery had a different payout structure?
  3. How does the expected value change with multiple tickets bought per draw?
  4. What are the implications of playing this lottery over the long term?
  5. How could one optimize their strategy in lotteries with different rules?

Tip: Always consider the expected value and variance when evaluating games of chance to make informed decisions. Would you like more details on any part of this?

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Statistics
Geometric Distribution

Formulas

Mean: μ = 1/p
Variance: σ² = q/p²
Standard Deviation: σ = √(σ²)

Theorems

Properties of Geometric Distribution

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12