Math Problem Statement
Solution
Let's break down the problem in steps:
(a) Probability Distribution Table for (your profit)
- You choose 4 numbers from 1 to 14 without replacement.
- The operator also chooses 4 numbers from 1 to 14 without replacement.
Possible outcomes for profit :
- Match exactly 2 numbers: You win $10.
- Match exactly 3 numbers: You win $100.
- Match all 4 numbers: You win $1000.
- Match less than 2 numbers: You lose $75.
We need to calculate the probability for each of these outcomes and create a probability distribution table. To compute probabilities, we'll use combinations.
Let’s define the total number of ways to select 4 numbers from 14:
Now, for each scenario:
-
Match 4 numbers: You win $1000. This happens if all your 4 numbers match the operator’s numbers. The probability is:
-
Match 3 numbers: You win $100. You match 3 of your 4 numbers, and 1 of the operator's remaining numbers is not yours:
-
Match 2 numbers: You win $10. You match 2 of your 4 numbers, and the other 2 operator's numbers are not yours:
-
Match less than 2 numbers: You lose $75. This is the remaining probability:
Now, let’s fill in the probability table:
\hline X & P(X=x) \\ \hline -75 & 0.6893 \\ 10 & 0.2697 \\ 100 & 0.03996 \\ 1000 & 0.000999 \\ \hline \end{array}$$ ### (b) Sketching the Distribution You can plot these values on a graph, with $$X$$ on the x-axis and $$P(X = x)$$ on the y-axis. - The highest probability occurs at $$X = -75$$, indicating a loss most of the time. - The probability decreases rapidly as the winnings increase, with the chance of winning \$1000 being the smallest. ### (c) Expected Value and Standard Deviation To compute the expected value $$E(X)$$, use: $$E(X) = \sum x \cdot P(X = x)$$ $$E(X) = (-75)(0.6893) + (10)(0.2697) + (100)(0.03996) + (1000)(0.000999)$$ $$E(X) \approx -51.70$$ To compute the standard deviation $$SD(X)$$, use: $$SD(X) = \sqrt{E(X^2) - (E(X))^2}$$ where $$E(X^2) = \sum x^2 \cdot P(X=x)$$. Let me know if you'd like further details on calculating the standard deviation or any other part! ### Follow-up Questions 1. How is the combination formula $$\binom{n}{k}$$ used in probability computations? 2. Why is the loss of \$75 the most likely outcome in this game? 3. What does a negative expected value indicate in a game of chance? 4. How would increasing the pool of numbers from 14 to 20 affect the probability distribution? 5. Could this type of game be considered fair? Why or why not? **Tip**: Understanding how to compute expected value can help you assess the fairness and risk involved in any game of chance.Ask a new question for Free
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Probability
Combinatorics
Statistics
Formulas
Probability = (Number of favorable outcomes) / (Total number of outcomes)
Combinations formula: C(n, k) = n! / (k! * (n - k)!)
Expected Value: E(X) = Σ [x * P(X = x)]
Standard Deviation: SD(X) = sqrt(E(X^2) - (E(X))^2)
Theorems
Law of Total Probability
Expected Value Formula
Suitable Grade Level
Undergraduate or Advanced High School (Grades 11-12)
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