Math Problem Statement

Out of 400 people sampled, 308 had kids. Assuming the conditions are met, construct a theoretical 99% confidence interval for the true population proportion of people with kids.

Give your answers as decimals, to four places.

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Solution

To construct a 99% confidence interval for the true population proportion of people with kids, we follow these steps:

1. Identify the sample proportion (p^\hat{p}):

The sample proportion (p^\hat{p}) is calculated as: p^=number of people with kidstotal sample size=308400=0.77\hat{p} = \frac{\text{number of people with kids}}{\text{total sample size}} = \frac{308}{400} = 0.77

2. Determine the critical value for a 99% confidence interval:

For a 99% confidence interval, the critical value (zα/2z_{\alpha/2}) corresponds to the Z-value where the area under the standard normal curve between -zα/2z_{\alpha/2} and zα/2z_{\alpha/2} is 99%. This value is approximately: zα/2=2.576z_{\alpha/2} = 2.576

3. Compute the standard error (SE):

The standard error (SE) of the sample proportion is calculated using the formula: SE=p^(1p^)n=0.77(10.77)400=0.77×0.23400=0.17714000.0210SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1 - \hat{p})}{n}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.77(1 - 0.77)}{400}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.77 \times 0.23}{400}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.1771}{400}} \approx 0.0210

4. Calculate the margin of error (ME):

The margin of error is given by: ME=zα/2×SE=2.576×0.02100.0541ME = z_{\alpha/2} \times SE = 2.576 \times 0.0210 \approx 0.0541

5. Construct the confidence interval:

The confidence interval is: p^±ME=0.77±0.0541\hat{p} \pm ME = 0.77 \pm 0.0541 Thus, the confidence interval is: (0.77000.0541,0.7700+0.0541)=(0.7159,0.8241)(0.7700 - 0.0541, 0.7700 + 0.0541) = (0.7159, 0.8241)

Final Answer:

The 99% confidence interval for the true population proportion is: (0.7159,0.8241)(0.7159, 0.8241)

Would you like further details or have any questions?

Here are five follow-up questions you could explore:

  1. How would the confidence interval change if the sample size increased?
  2. What is the interpretation of this confidence interval in context?
  3. How would a 95% confidence interval differ from a 99% one in this case?
  4. How does the sample proportion (p^\hat{p}) affect the width of the interval?
  5. How does the standard error influence the margin of error?

Tip: A larger sample size reduces the margin of error, leading to a narrower confidence interval, all else being equal.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Statistics
Confidence Intervals
Proportions

Formulas

Sample proportion: p̂ = x/n
Standard error: SE = √(p̂(1 - p̂) / n)
Margin of error: ME = Zα/2 × SE
Confidence interval: p̂ ± ME

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem
Z-distribution

Suitable Grade Level

College Level (Statistics or AP Statistics)