Math Problem Statement

We wish to estimate what percent of adult residents in a certain county are parents. Out of 400 adult residents sampled, 208 had kids. Based on this, construct a 99% confidence interval for the proportion, p, of adult residents who are parents in this county.

Give your answers as decimals, to three places.

Solution

To construct a 99% confidence interval for the proportion pp of adult residents who are parents, we will follow these steps:

  1. Determine the sample proportion p^\hat{p}: p^=xn=208400=0.52\hat{p} = \frac{x}{n} = \frac{208}{400} = 0.52

  2. Calculate the standard error (SE): SE=p^(1p^)n=0.52(10.52)400=0.52×0.48400=0.24964000.025SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1 - \hat{p})}{n}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.52(1 - 0.52)}{400}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.52 \times 0.48}{400}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.2496}{400}} \approx 0.025

  3. Determine the critical value for a 99% confidence interval: For a 99% confidence level, the critical value zz (from the standard normal distribution) is approximately 2.576.

  4. Calculate the margin of error (ME): ME=z×SE=2.576×0.0250.0644ME = z \times SE = 2.576 \times 0.025 \approx 0.0644

  5. Construct the confidence interval: Lower limit=p^ME=0.520.06440.4556\text{Lower limit} = \hat{p} - ME = 0.52 - 0.0644 \approx 0.4556 Upper limit=p^+ME=0.52+0.06440.5844\text{Upper limit} = \hat{p} + ME = 0.52 + 0.0644 \approx 0.5844

Thus, the 99% confidence interval for the proportion pp of adult residents who are parents is approximately:

(0.456,0.584)(0.456, 0.584)

Summary:

  • Lower Limit: 0.456
  • Upper Limit: 0.584

If you have any questions or need further details, feel free to ask! Here are some related questions to consider:

  1. What assumptions are made when calculating the confidence interval for proportions?
  2. How would the confidence interval change with a larger sample size?
  3. What is the impact of the confidence level on the width of the confidence interval?
  4. How can this method be applied to different populations or categories?
  5. What are the limitations of using confidence intervals in statistical analysis?

Tip: When interpreting confidence intervals, remember that they provide a range of plausible values for the population parameter, not a guarantee that the true parameter lies within that range.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Statistics
Probability
Confidence Intervals

Formulas

Sample Proportion: \hat{p} = \frac{x}{n}
Standard Error: SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1 - \hat{p})}{n}}
Margin of Error: ME = z \times SE
Confidence Interval: (\hat{p} - ME, \hat{p} + ME)

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem
Properties of Confidence Intervals

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12