Math Problem Statement

Starting from the estimated

7.87.8

billion world population in​ 2021, assume that the population maintains an annual growth rate of

0.90.9​%.

Suppose a student was born in

What will the world population be when the student is

5050

years​ old?

8383

years​ old?

100100

years​ old? Use the approximate doubling time formula.

Question content area bottom

Part 1

When the student is

5050

years​ old, the world will have a population of about

enter your response here

billion.

​(Round to the nearest tenth as​ needed.)

Part 2

When the student is

8383

years​ old, the world will have a population of about

enter your response here

billion.

​(Round to the nearest tenth as​ needed.)

Part 3

When the student is

100100

years​ old, the world will have a population of about

enter your response here

billion.

​(Round to the nearest tenth as​ needed.)

Solution

To solve this problem, we will use the rule of 70 for approximate doubling time. This rule states:

Doubling Time=70Growth Rate (%).\text{Doubling Time} = \frac{70}{\text{Growth Rate (\%)}}.

Step 1: Calculate the doubling time

Given an annual growth rate of 0.9%0.9\%:

Doubling Time=700.977.8years.\text{Doubling Time} = \frac{70}{0.9} \approx 77.8 \, \text{years}.

Step 2: Calculate population at various ages

We start with the population in 2021: 7.8billion7.8 \, \text{billion}. The student was born in 2001, so their age in any given year is:

Age in a year=Year2001.\text{Age in a year} = \text{Year} - 2001.

Part 1: Population at age 50

When the student is 5050 years old, the year is:

2001+50=2051.2001 + 50 = 2051.

From 2021 to 2051 is 3030 years. The population change can be estimated using the formula for exponential growth:

P(t)=P02t/Doubling Time,P(t) = P_0 \cdot 2^{t / \text{Doubling Time}}, where:

  • P0=7.8billionP_0 = 7.8 \, \text{billion},
  • t=20512021=30yearst = 2051 - 2021 = 30 \, \text{years},
  • Doubling Time=77.8years\text{Doubling Time} = 77.8 \, \text{years}.

P(30)=7.8230/77.8.P(30) = 7.8 \cdot 2^{30 / 77.8}.

P(30)=7.820.38557.81.30710.2billion.P(30) = 7.8 \cdot 2^{0.3855} \approx 7.8 \cdot 1.307 \approx 10.2 \, \text{billion}.

So, at age 5050, the population will be approximately 10.2 billion.

Part 2: Population at age 83

When the student is 8383 years old, the year is:

2001+83=2084.2001 + 83 = 2084.

From 2021 to 2084 is 6363 years. Using the same formula:

P(63)=7.8263/77.8.P(63) = 7.8 \cdot 2^{63 / 77.8}.

P(63)=7.820.80987.81.74913.6billion.P(63) = 7.8 \cdot 2^{0.8098} \approx 7.8 \cdot 1.749 \approx 13.6 \, \text{billion}.

So, at age 8383, the population will be approximately 13.6 billion.

Part 3: Population at age 100

When the student is 100100 years old, the year is:

2001+100=2101.2001 + 100 = 2101.

From 2021 to 2101 is 8080 years. Using the same formula:

P(80)=7.8280/77.8.P(80) = 7.8 \cdot 2^{80 / 77.8}.

P(80)=7.821.0287.82.05416.0billion.P(80) = 7.8 \cdot 2^{1.028} \approx 7.8 \cdot 2.054 \approx 16.0 \, \text{billion}.

So, at age 100100, the population will be approximately 16.0 billion.


Final Results

  1. When the student is 50 years old (2051), the population will be about 10.2 billion.
  2. When the student is 83 years old (2084), the population will be about 13.6 billion.
  3. When the student is 100 years old (2101), the population will be about 16.0 billion.

Would you like a detailed explanation of any step?


Here are 5 related questions for further exploration:

  1. How does the rule of 70 compare to exact exponential growth calculations?
  2. What happens if the annual growth rate decreases in future decades?
  3. How would this calculation change with compounding growth rates (e.g., variable growth)?
  4. How can we model population changes in regions with declining populations?
  5. What is the significance of the doubling time in real-world scenarios like resource management?

Tip: Always verify population models using multiple methods, especially for long-term predictions where assumptions may change.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Exponential Growth
Population Growth
Doubling Time
Percentage Growth

Formulas

Doubling Time = 70 / Growth Rate (%)
P(t) = P_0 * 2^(t / Doubling Time)

Theorems

Rule of 70 for Doubling Time
Exponential Growth Model

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 9-12