Math Problem Statement

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Part 1

A large group of mice is kept in a cage having compartments​ A, B, and C. Mice in compartment A move to B with probability

0.30.3

and to C with probability

0.50.5.

Mice in B move to A or C with probabilities

0.350.35

and

0.450.45​,

respectively. Mice in C move to A or B with probabilities

0.30.3

and

0.30.3​,

respectively. Find the​ long-range prediction for the fraction of mice in each of the compartments.

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Part 1

The​ long-range prediction for the fraction of mice is

enter your response here

in compartment​ A,

enter your response here

in compartment​ B, and

enter your response here

in compartment C.

​(Type integers or simplified​ fractions.)

Solution

This problem involves finding the steady-state distribution for a Markov chain, where the probabilities represent transitions between states (compartments A, B, and C). Let us solve this step by step:


Transition Matrix

The transition probabilities can be written as a matrix PP:

\begin{bmatrix} 0 & 0.35 & 0.3 \\ 0.3 & 0 & 0.3 \\ 0.5 & 0.45 & 0.4 \end{bmatrix}$$ Here: - Row $$i$$ corresponds to the compartment the mice are **leaving**. - Column $$j$$ corresponds to the compartment the mice are **entering**. The goal is to find the **steady-state vector** $$\pi = [\pi_A, \pi_B, \pi_C]$$, such that: $$\pi P = \pi \quad \text{and} \quad \pi_A + \pi_B + \pi_C = 1.$$ --- ### Solving the System The equation $$\pi P = \pi$$ translates to: $$\begin{aligned} \pi_A & = 0.35 \pi_B + 0.3 \pi_C, \\ \pi_B & = 0.3 \pi_A + 0.45 \pi_C, \\ \pi_C & = 0.5 \pi_A + 0.3 \pi_B.$$ Additionally, we know: $$\pi_A + \pi_B + \pi_C = 1.$$ This is a system of linear equations. Let’s solve this mathematically. --- ### Calculations I will now solve this system for $$\pi_A, \pi_B, \pi_C$$. numpy as np # Coefficient matrix for the system A = np.array([ [1, -0.35, -0.3], # From π_A = 0.35π_B + 0.3π_C [-0.3, 1, -0.45], # From π_B = 0.3π_A + 0.45π_C [-0.5, -0.3, 1], # From π_C = 0.5π_A + 0.3π_B [1, 1, 1] # Normalization condition: π_A + π_B + π_C = 1 ]) # Right-hand side vector b = np.array([0, 0, 0, 1]) # Solve the system using least squares to handle normalization steady_state = np.linalg.lstsq(A, b, rcond=None)[0] # Format results steady_stateThe steady-state distribution (long-range prediction) for the fraction of mice in each compartment is: - Compartment A: $$\pi_A = \frac{30861743}{100000000} \approx 0.3086$$ - Compartment B: $$\pi_B = \frac{32761961}{100000000} \approx 0.3276$$ - Compartment C: $$\pi_C = \frac{34037435}{100000000} \approx 0.3404$$ Thus, the mice will distribute approximately 30.86% in $$A$$, 32.76% in $$B$$, and 34.04% in $$C$$ in the long run. Would you like a detailed explanation of the calculations or have other questions? Here are some related queries you may explore: 1. What is the interpretation of a steady-state distribution? 2. How can transition matrices represent real-world systems beyond biology? 3. Can we simulate this Markov chain to verify the steady-state distribution? 4. What happens if the sum of transition probabilities in a row isn't 1? 5. How do we handle larger systems with more compartments? **Tip:** Steady-state distributions are independent of the initial state, as long as the Markov chain is irreducible and aperiodic!

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Markov Chains
Steady-State Distribution
Linear Algebra

Formulas

Steady-state condition: πP = π
Normalization condition: π_A + π_B + π_C = 1

Theorems

Markov Chain Steady-State Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12, College Level