Math Problem Statement
When they send out their fundraising letter, a philanthropic organization typically gets a return from about 5% of the people on their mailing list. To see what the response rate might be for future appeals, they did a simulation using samples of size 20, 50, 100, and 200. For each sample size, they simulated 1000 mailings with success rate pequals0.05 and constructed the histogram of the 1000 sample proportions, shown in the accompanying link. Explain what these histograms say about the sampling distribution model for sample proportions. Be sure to talk about shape, center, and spread. LOADING... Click the icon to view histograms of the simulations. Question content area bottom Part 1 Discuss how the shape changes with sample size. A. The distributions for small samples are left-skewed and get more right-skewed as n increases. B. The distributions for small samples are right-skewed but are more symmetric as n increases. Your answer is correct.C. The distributions for small samples are right-skewed and get more left-skewed as n increases. D. The distributions for small samples are left-skewed but are more symmetric as n increases. E. The shape does not change with sample size. Part 2 Discuss how the center changes with sample size. A. The center approaches the population proportion of 0.05 as n decreases. B. The center varies seemingly independent of sample size. C. The center approaches the population proportion of 0.05 as n increases. Your answer is not correct.D. The center does not change with sample size; all the histograms are centered near 0.05. This is the correct answer. Part 3 Discuss how the variability changes with sample size. A. As n gets larger, the histograms approach the Normal shape, and the variability in the sample proportions increases. B. As n gets smaller, the histograms approach the Normal shape, and the variability in the sample proportions increases. C. As n gets larger, the histograms approach the Normal shape, and the variability in the sample proportions decreases. D. As n gets smaller, the histograms approach the Normal shape, and the variability in the sample proportions decreases.
Solution
Let's break down the three parts of the problem, analyzing the changes in shape, center, and spread of the sampling distribution model for sample proportions as sample size increases.
Part 1: Shape
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Correct answer: B. The distributions for small samples are right-skewed but are more symmetric as n increases.
Explanation: For small sample sizes, the distribution of sample proportions tends to be right-skewed. This occurs because when there are fewer observations, extreme proportions (like very few or none responding) are more likely, skewing the distribution to the right. As the sample size increases, the distribution becomes more symmetric and approaches the shape of a normal distribution due to the Central Limit Theorem.
Part 2: Center
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Correct answer: D. The center does not change with sample size; all the histograms are centered near 0.05.
Explanation: The sample proportion's expected value is the population proportion, which is 0.05 in this case. Regardless of the sample size, the center of the sampling distribution of sample proportions remains close to the population proportion. Hence, all histograms are centered around 0.05, as the center is not significantly impacted by changes in sample size.
Part 3: Spread (Variability)
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Correct answer: C. As n gets larger, the histograms approach the Normal shape, and the variability in the sample proportions decreases.
Explanation: As sample size increases, variability in the sample proportions decreases. This is because larger samples tend to provide more stable estimates of the population proportion. Smaller sample sizes lead to more variability (spread), whereas larger samples result in less variability. Additionally, the shape becomes more normal as increases, again due to the Central Limit Theorem.
Summary
- Shape: The distribution is right-skewed for small sample sizes but becomes more symmetric (and normal-like) as increases.
- Center: The center stays around the population proportion of 0.05, regardless of sample size.
- Spread: The variability decreases with larger sample sizes, making the sample proportions more concentrated around the true population proportion.
Would you like further details or have any questions about these concepts?
Here are five related questions to expand your understanding:
- How does the Central Limit Theorem apply to the sampling distribution of proportions?
- What happens to the standard error of the sample proportion as sample size increases?
- Why does a small sample size lead to more variability in the sample proportion?
- How can we calculate the expected spread (standard error) for a given sample size in a proportion?
- What is the effect of changing the population proportion on the shape of the sampling distribution?
Tip: As the sample size increases, the spread of the sampling distribution narrows. You can calculate this spread (standard error) using , where is the population proportion and is the sample size.
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Statistics
Sampling Distribution
Central Limit Theorem
Proportion
Formulas
Standard Error of Proportion: SE = sqrt(p(1 - p) / n)
Theorems
Central Limit Theorem
Suitable Grade Level
Grades 10-12
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