Math Problem Statement

A company that sells annuities must base the annual payout on the probability distribution of the length of life of the participants in the plan. Suppose the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 67 years and a standard deviation of 2.6 years. What proportion of the plan recipients die before they reach the standard retirement age of 65?

Solution

To find the proportion of plan recipients who die before reaching the standard retirement age of 65, we calculate the z-score and then use the standard normal distribution table.

Step 1: Z-Score Calculation

The z-score is given by the formula:

z=xμσz = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma}

Where:

  • x=65x = 65 (the age of interest),
  • μ=67\mu = 67 (mean lifetime of participants),
  • σ=2.6\sigma = 2.6 (standard deviation of lifetimes).

Substituting the values:

z=65672.6=22.60.769z = \frac{65 - 67}{2.6} = \frac{-2}{2.6} \approx -0.769

Step 2: Find the Proportion Below z = -0.769

Using a standard normal distribution table or a calculator, the cumulative probability for z=0.769z = -0.769 is approximately:

P(Z<0.769)0.2206P(Z < -0.769) \approx 0.2206

Interpretation

Approximately 22.06% of the plan recipients are expected to die before reaching the standard retirement age of 65.


Would you like to see a graph of this distribution or have further clarification on the calculations?

Related Questions:

  1. What is the proportion of recipients expected to live beyond 70 years?
  2. What is the probability that a recipient lives between 65 and 70 years?
  3. How does the mean and standard deviation affect the probability calculation?
  4. If the standard deviation were increased to 3 years, how would the proportion below 65 years change?
  5. What proportion of participants live at least one standard deviation above the mean?

Tip:

When working with normal distributions, always visualize the problem to better understand the cumulative areas under the curve.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Normal Distribution
Z-Score Calculation

Formulas

z = (x - μ) / σ

Theorems

Properties of the Normal Distribution

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12