Math Problem Statement

A dexterity test for youngsters is scored on a 0-100 range. The scores are distributed as normal with an expected value of 85 and variance of 16. Which of the following represents the probability that a participant will score greater than 81?

Solution

We are given that the dexterity test scores are normally distributed with:

  • Mean (expected value), μ=85\mu = 85
  • Variance, σ2=16\sigma^2 = 16, so the standard deviation σ=16=4\sigma = \sqrt{16} = 4

We want to find the probability that a participant scores greater than 81, i.e., P(X>81)P(X > 81), where XX represents the test scores.

To solve this, we follow these steps:

Step 1: Standardize the variable XX

We convert X=81X = 81 to the standard normal variable ZZ using the formula:

Z=XμσZ = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}

Substituting the values:

Z=81854=44=1Z = \frac{81 - 85}{4} = \frac{-4}{4} = -1

Thus, P(X>81)=P(Z>1)P(X > 81) = P(Z > -1).

Step 2: Use the standard normal distribution table

Next, we look up the cumulative probability for Z=1Z = -1 in a standard normal distribution table. This gives:

P(Z1)0.1587P(Z \leq -1) \approx 0.1587

Since we are looking for P(Z>1)P(Z > -1), we calculate:

P(Z>1)=1P(Z1)=10.1587=0.8413P(Z > -1) = 1 - P(Z \leq -1) = 1 - 0.1587 = 0.8413

Final Answer:

The probability that a participant will score greater than 81 is approximately 0.84130.8413 or 84.13%.


Do you need further clarification on any part of the explanation? Here are some related questions you might find helpful:

  1. What if the score were less than 81 instead of greater?
  2. How would the probability change if the mean score was different?
  3. What is the probability of scoring between 81 and 85?
  4. How do you interpret the meaning of standard deviation in this context?
  5. What would be the probability for a score greater than 90?

Tip: When dealing with normal distributions, converting the variable to a standard normal (using the Z-score) simplifies finding probabilities from standard tables or calculators.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Normal Distribution
Standard Normal Distribution (Z-scores)

Formulas

Z = (X - μ) / σ
P(Z > -1) = 1 - P(Z ≤ -1)

Theorems

Empirical Rule
Properties of the Normal Distribution

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12