Math Problem Statement

Solve this problem related to the image: If a package selected at random come from Machine B, what is the probability that it's properly sealed?

If a package selected at random comes from Machine B, what is the probability that it's properly sealed?

Solution

We are asked to find the probability that a randomly selected package comes from Machine B and is properly sealed.

Given Information:

  • P(A)=0.6P(A) = 0.6: Probability the package comes from Machine A.
  • P(B)=0.4P(B) = 0.4: Probability the package comes from Machine B.
  • P(I)=0.05P(I) = 0.05: Probability the package is improperly sealed.
  • P(S)=0.95P(S) = 0.95: Probability the package is properly sealed.
  • P(AI)=0.04P(A \cap I) = 0.04: Probability the package comes from Machine A and is improperly sealed.

To solve:

We are asked to find the conditional probability that the package is properly sealed given that it comes from Machine B, i.e., P(SB)P(S \mid B).

We can apply the following rule for conditional probability: P(SB)=P(SB)P(B)P(S \mid B) = \frac{P(S \cap B)}{P(B)}

We already know P(B)=0.4P(B) = 0.4, but we need to find P(SB)P(S \cap B), the probability that the package is from Machine B and properly sealed. To find this, we can use the fact that the total probability for being improperly sealed is 0.050.05, and it includes contributions from both machines.

Since P(AI)=0.04P(A \cap I) = 0.04, this means the remaining 0.010.01 of improperly sealed packages must come from Machine B, i.e., P(BI)=0.01P(B \cap I) = 0.01.

Thus, the probability that the package is properly sealed from Machine B is: P(SB)=P(B)P(BI)=0.40.01=0.39P(S \cap B) = P(B) - P(B \cap I) = 0.4 - 0.01 = 0.39

Now, applying the conditional probability formula:

P(SB)=0.390.4=0.975P(S \mid B) = \frac{0.39}{0.4} = 0.975

Thus, the probability that a package from Machine B is properly sealed is 0.975 or 97.5%.

Let me know if you need further details or have any questions!

Relative questions:

  1. What is the probability that a package from Machine A is improperly sealed?
  2. What is the probability that a randomly selected package is improperly sealed, regardless of the machine?
  3. If a package is improperly sealed, what is the probability that it came from Machine A?
  4. What is the probability that a package from Machine B is improperly sealed?
  5. What is the overall probability that a package from either machine is properly sealed?

Tip:

For probability problems involving conditional events, always break the problem down by calculating joint probabilities, and then apply conditional probability formulas to get accurate results.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Conditional Probability
Joint Probability
Probability Rules

Formulas

Conditional probability formula: P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B)
Joint probability: P(S ∩ B) = P(B) - P(B ∩ I)

Theorems

Law of Total Probability
Bayes' Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 9-12