Math Problem Statement

A survey of the US population found that 26% of consumers shop for groceries online.  Suppose you select a sample of 200 consumers. Using what you know about the distribution of the sample proportion answer the following question.

Suppose instead you take a sample of 800 consumers. What is the probability that between 23% and 29% of consumers in your sample shop for groceries online?

(Round answers to four decimal places.)

Solution

To solve this problem, we can use the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) for proportions. The CLT tells us that, for a sufficiently large sample size, the sampling distribution of the sample proportion can be approximated by a normal distribution with mean and standard deviation given by:

  • Mean of the sample proportion μp^=p\mu_{\hat{p}} = p
  • Standard deviation of the sample proportion σp^=p(1p)n\sigma_{\hat{p}} = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}}

where:

  • p=0.26p = 0.26 (the population proportion of consumers who shop for groceries online),
  • n=800n = 800 (the sample size).

Step 1: Calculate the mean and standard deviation of the sample proportion

Given:

  • p=0.26p = 0.26
  • n=800n = 800

Calculate the standard deviation: σp^=0.26(10.26)800=0.26×0.74800=0.1924800=0.00024050.0155\sigma_{\hat{p}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.26(1 - 0.26)}{800}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.26 \times 0.74}{800}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.1924}{800}} = \sqrt{0.0002405} \approx 0.0155

Step 2: Convert the percentages to proportions and find the corresponding zz-scores

We want the probability that the sample proportion p^\hat{p} is between 0.23 and 0.29. We convert these values to their corresponding zz-scores using the formula: z=p^μp^σp^z = \frac{\hat{p} - \mu_{\hat{p}}}{\sigma_{\hat{p}}}

Calculating the zz-scores:

  • For p^=0.23\hat{p} = 0.23: z1=0.230.260.01550.030.01551.9355z_1 = \frac{0.23 - 0.26}{0.0155} \approx \frac{-0.03}{0.0155} \approx -1.9355

  • For p^=0.29\hat{p} = 0.29: z2=0.290.260.01550.030.01551.9355z_2 = \frac{0.29 - 0.26}{0.0155} \approx \frac{0.03}{0.0155} \approx 1.9355

Step 3: Find the probability using the standard normal distribution

We need to find the probability that zz is between 1.9355-1.9355 and 1.93551.9355. Using the standard normal table or a calculator, we find the probabilities:

  • P(Z<1.9355)0.9736P(Z < 1.9355) \approx 0.9736
  • P(Z<1.9355)0.0264P(Z < -1.9355) \approx 0.0264

Therefore, the probability that the sample proportion is between 0.23 and 0.29 is: P(1.9355<Z<1.9355)=P(Z<1.9355)P(Z<1.9355)=0.97360.0264=0.9472P(-1.9355 < Z < 1.9355) = P(Z < 1.9355) - P(Z < -1.9355) = 0.9736 - 0.0264 = 0.9472

Final Answer

The probability that between 23% and 29% of consumers in the sample of 800 shop for groceries online is approximately 0.9472 (rounded to four decimal places).

Would you like more details on this, or have any questions?

Here are some related questions you might find useful:

  1. How do we determine the sample size required for a given level of confidence in a proportion problem?
  2. What is the impact of increasing the sample size on the standard deviation of the sample proportion?
  3. How does the Central Limit Theorem apply to sample proportions?
  4. What are the conditions for using the normal approximation for a binomial distribution?
  5. How do we calculate probabilities for values not directly in the standard normal table?

Tip: Always check if the sample size is large enough for the normal approximation to be valid using the rule np10np \geq 10 and n(1p)10n(1-p) \geq 10.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Statistics
Probability
Sampling Distributions
Normal Distribution

Formulas

Mean of the sample proportion: μ̂p = p
Standard deviation of the sample proportion: σ̂p = √[p(1-p)/n]
Z-score formula: z = (p̂ - p) / σ̂p

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12, College level