Math Problem Statement
If there is a 1/30,000 chance of something happening and a 1/10,000 chance of something happening. Then what are the chances of them happening within 100 encounters of eachother
Solution
To calculate the probability of two independent events happening within 100 encounters, where each event has a separate chance of occurring in each encounter, we need to understand that we’re dealing with two events occurring in the same range (within 100 trials). Let's denote these events as follows:
- Event A: has a chance of happening per encounter.
- Event B: has a chance of happening per encounter.
Step 1: Probability of Each Event Happening Within 100 Encounters
For each event, we calculate the probability that it happens at least once within 100 encounters.
Probability for Event A
The probability of Event A not happening in a single encounter is:
The probability of Event A not happening in 100 encounters is:
So, the probability of Event A happening at least once within 100 encounters is:
Probability for Event B
Similarly, the probability of Event B not happening in a single encounter is:
The probability of Event B not happening in 100 encounters is:
So, the probability of Event B happening at least once within 100 encounters is:
Step 2: Probability of Both Events Happening Within 100 Encounters
Since we want both events to happen within the same 100 encounters, we assume that these events are independent. Therefore, we can multiply their individual probabilities:
Substituting in the probabilities from above, we get:
Step 3: Calculating the Result
To provide a more precise answer, let's calculate the values of these probabilities. Here are the approximate values:
- , so .
- , so .
Then,
Conclusion
The probability of both events occurring within the same 100 encounters is approximately 0.000033 or 0.0033%.
Would you like further details or have any questions?
Here are some follow-up questions for more exploration:
- How would the probability change if there were 1,000 encounters instead of 100?
- What is the probability of at least one of the two events occurring within 100 encounters?
- How does increasing the probability of one event impact the combined probability?
- What if the two events were not independent? How would that affect the calculation?
- How would this approach differ if there were three independent events?
Tip: In probability, for events with a small chance, the chance of at least one occurrence can be approximated by where is the probability of a single event, and is the number of trials.
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Probability
Independent Events
Formulas
P(A in n encounters) = 1 - (1 - p_A)^n
P(B in n encounters) = 1 - (1 - p_B)^n
P(both A and B in n encounters) = P(A in n encounters) * P(B in n encounters)
Theorems
Multiplication Rule for Independent Events
Suitable Grade Level
Grades 10-12