Math Problem Statement

The player shoots 50 sets of 27 shots. Find the probability that the player hits the target at least 15 times in 37 of the 50 sets.

Solution

This problem requires calculating a probability involving two levels of binomial distribution:

  1. First Level (within a set of 27 shots): Determine the probability that the player hits the target at least 15 times out of 27 in each set.
  2. Second Level (across multiple sets): Use the result from the first level to find the probability that the player hits the target at least 15 times in 37 out of 50 sets.

Step 1: Determine Probability of Hitting Target at Least 15 Times in a Single Set

Let pp be the probability of hitting the target in a single shot. This is typically a known probability or would need to be provided. Let’s denote this probability as P(X15)P(X \geq 15), where XX follows a binomial distribution XBinomial(n=27,p)X \sim \text{Binomial}(n=27, p).

The probability of hitting the target at least 15 times in a single set is given by: P(X15)=k=1527(27k)pk(1p)27kP(X \geq 15) = \sum_{k=15}^{27} \binom{27}{k} p^k (1 - p)^{27 - k}

Step 2: Calculate the Probability for 37 Out of 50 Sets

Let YY represent the number of sets (out of 50) in which the player hits the target at least 15 times. Here, YY follows another binomial distribution: YBinomial(n=50,q)Y \sim \text{Binomial}(n=50, q) where q=P(X15)q = P(X \geq 15) (calculated in Step 1).

The problem asks for the probability that the player achieves this result in at least 37 of the 50 sets, which is: P(Y37)=j=3750(50j)qj(1q)50jP(Y \geq 37) = \sum_{j=37}^{50} \binom{50}{j} q^j (1 - q)^{50 - j}

Final Calculation

Without a specific probability pp for hitting the target in a single shot, we cannot calculate a precise numerical answer. However, if you have this value, we could proceed with the computations.

Would you like further clarification on any part of this process or have additional details to share, such as the probability of hitting the target in a single shot?


Here are 5 follow-up questions to explore this concept further:

  1. How would you calculate P(X15)P(X \geq 15) if given a specific probability pp for hitting the target?
  2. What is the binomial distribution, and how is it applied in probability calculations?
  3. Can this problem be solved using normal approximation? If so, how would that work?
  4. What factors could affect the probability of hitting the target in each shot?
  5. How would you interpret the results of this probability in real-world performance?

Tip: For large binomial probabilities, using the normal approximation can simplify calculations if npnp and n(1p)n(1 - p) are large enough.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Binomial Distribution

Formulas

P(X ≥ 15) = ∑(k=15 to 27) [C(27, k) * p^k * (1 - p)^(27 - k)]
P(Y ≥ 37) = ∑(j=37 to 50) [C(50, j) * q^j * (1 - q)^(50 - j)]

Theorems

Binomial Probability Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

College Level