Math Problem Statement

The contents of urns I, II and III are as follows: 1 4h67, 2 89:;< := 3 0 8:99>, 2 4h67, 1 89:;< := 1 0 8:99>, 4 4h67, 5 89:;< := 3 0 8:99>. Once urn is chosen at random and one ball is drawn. It happened to be white. What is the probability that it came from urn II? (b) What is the expected number of heads appearing when a fair coin is tossed three times? (c) Find the parameters (= and ?), of a binomial distribution which has mean equal to 6

Solution

Let's break down each part of your question:

Part (a): Probability Problem Involving Urns

The contents of the urns are somewhat unclear from the symbols used. I will assume the following based on a general probability urn model:

  • Each urn contains a mix of white and other-colored balls.
  • We are asked to calculate the probability that, given a white ball was drawn, it came from urn II.

Let's clarify the problem:

Let:

  • U1,U2,U3U_1, U_2, U_3 represent urns I, II, and III, respectively.
  • The number of white balls and total balls in each urn should be clearly provided. Without that information, I'll proceed with an abstract solution.

Suppose:

  • Urn I has W1W_1 white balls and T1T_1 total balls.
  • Urn II has W2W_2 white balls and T2T_2 total balls.
  • Urn III has W3W_3 white balls and T3T_3 total balls.

The probability that a white ball is drawn from urn II can be calculated using Bayes' Theorem:

P(Urn IIWhite Ball)=P(White BallUrn II)P(Urn II)P(White Ball)P(\text{Urn II} \mid \text{White Ball}) = \frac{P(\text{White Ball} \mid \text{Urn II}) \cdot P(\text{Urn II})}{P(\text{White Ball})}

Where:

  • P(White BallUrn II)=W2T2P(\text{White Ball} \mid \text{Urn II}) = \frac{W_2}{T_2}
  • P(Urn II)=13P(\text{Urn II}) = \frac{1}{3} (assuming each urn is equally likely to be chosen)
  • P(White Ball)=13(W1T1+W2T2+W3T3)P(\text{White Ball}) = \frac{1}{3} \left( \frac{W_1}{T_1} + \frac{W_2}{T_2} + \frac{W_3}{T_3} \right) is the total probability of drawing a white ball.

Once we have the actual contents of the urns, we can compute this directly.

Part (b): Expected Number of Heads when Tossing a Fair Coin Three Times

When tossing a fair coin three times, each toss has two possible outcomes: heads or tails, with the probability of heads P(Heads)=0.5P(\text{Heads}) = 0.5.

Let XX be the random variable representing the number of heads obtained in three tosses.

Since each toss is independent, XX follows a binomial distribution with parameters:

  • n=3n = 3 (the number of trials or tosses)
  • p=0.5p = 0.5 (the probability of heads in each trial).

The expected value for a binomial distribution XBinomial(n,p)X \sim \text{Binomial}(n, p) is given by:

E(X)=npE(X) = n \cdot p

Substituting the values:

E(X)=30.5=1.5E(X) = 3 \cdot 0.5 = 1.5

Thus, the expected number of heads when a fair coin is tossed three times is 1.5.

Part (c): Finding the Parameters of a Binomial Distribution

For a binomial distribution XBinomial(n,p)X \sim \text{Binomial}(n, p), the mean is given by:

μ=np\mu = n \cdot p

You are given that the mean μ=6\mu = 6. Therefore, we have:

np=6n \cdot p = 6

To find both nn and pp, we need more information, such as the variance σ2\sigma^2 (which is np(1p)n \cdot p \cdot (1 - p)). If we have the variance or another relationship between nn and pp, we can solve for both parameters. Otherwise, there are infinite solutions for nn and pp that satisfy np=6n \cdot p = 6.

If the variance is provided or inferred, I can give the specific values for nn and pp.


Would you like to provide more details for part (a) or part (c)? Feel free to upload or clarify the urn contents, or share additional details on the binomial distribution!

Follow-up Questions:

  1. What are the exact contents of the urns in terms of white and other-colored balls?
  2. Would you like to know more about how Bayes' theorem works?
  3. Can you clarify whether the urns are equally likely to be chosen?
  4. Do you want to explore other ways to calculate expected values in binomial distributions?
  5. Would you like examples of solving for nn and pp with additional information like variance?

Tip: In binomial distributions, the variance formula σ2=np(1p)\sigma^2 = n \cdot p \cdot (1 - p) is crucial for solving both parameters when the mean is given.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Expected Value
Binomial Distribution

Formulas

Bayes' Theorem: P(Urn II | White Ball) = [P(White Ball | Urn II) * P(Urn II)] / P(White Ball)
Expected Value for Binomial Distribution: E(X) = n * p
Mean of Binomial Distribution: μ = n * p
Variance of Binomial Distribution: σ² = n * p * (1 - p)

Theorems

Bayes' Theorem
Binomial Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12