Math Problem Statement

If bolt thread length is normally distributed, what is the probability that the thread length of a randomly selected bolt is

a. Within 1.5 SDs of its mean value?

b. Farther than 2.5 SDs from its mean value?

c. Between 1 and 2 SDs from its mean value?

Solution

We can solve each part of the problem using the properties of the standard normal distribution (a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1).

a. Probability that the thread length is within 1.5 standard deviations of the mean:

The probability that a value is within 1.5 standard deviations of the mean corresponds to the area under the standard normal curve between 1.5-1.5 and 1.51.5. Using the standard normal table or a calculator, we find:

P(1.5Z1.5)P(-1.5 \leq Z \leq 1.5)

First, find the cumulative probability for Z=1.5Z = 1.5 from a standard normal distribution:

P(Z1.5)=0.9332P(Z \leq 1.5) = 0.9332

Since the normal distribution is symmetric around the mean:

P(Z1.5)=P(Z1.5)=0.9332P(Z \geq -1.5) = P(Z \leq 1.5) = 0.9332

Thus, the probability of being within 1.5 standard deviations of the mean is:

P(1.5Z1.5)=0.9332(10.9332)=0.93320.0668=0.8664P(-1.5 \leq Z \leq 1.5) = 0.9332 - (1 - 0.9332) = 0.9332 - 0.0668 = 0.8664

So, the probability is 0.8664, or 86.64%.

b. Probability that the thread length is farther than 2.5 standard deviations from the mean:

This is the probability that the value lies outside the range of 2.5-2.5 to 2.52.5. The formula would be:

P(Z<2.5 or Z>2.5)=1P(2.5Z2.5)P(Z < -2.5 \text{ or } Z > 2.5) = 1 - P(-2.5 \leq Z \leq 2.5)

Find the cumulative probability for Z=2.5Z = 2.5:

P(Z2.5)=0.9938P(Z \leq 2.5) = 0.9938

Thus, the probability of being within 2.5 standard deviations of the mean is:

P(2.5Z2.5)=0.9938P(-2.5 \leq Z \leq 2.5) = 0.9938

Therefore, the probability of being farther than 2.5 standard deviations from the mean is:

P(Z<2.5 or Z>2.5)=10.9938=0.0062P(Z < -2.5 \text{ or } Z > 2.5) = 1 - 0.9938 = 0.0062

So, the probability is 0.0062, or 0.62%.

c. Probability that the thread length is between 1 and 2 standard deviations from the mean:

This is the probability that the value lies between 11 and 22 standard deviations. The formula is:

P(1Z2)P(1 \leq Z \leq 2)

Find the cumulative probabilities for Z=1Z = 1 and Z=2Z = 2:

P(Z1)=0.8413P(Z \leq 1) = 0.8413 P(Z2)=0.9772P(Z \leq 2) = 0.9772

Thus, the probability of being between 1 and 2 standard deviations is:

P(1Z2)=P(Z2)P(Z1)=0.97720.8413=0.1359P(1 \leq Z \leq 2) = P(Z \leq 2) - P(Z \leq 1) = 0.9772 - 0.8413 = 0.1359

So, the probability is 0.1359, or 13.59%.

Summary:

  • a. Probability within 1.5 SDs: 0.8664 (86.64%)
  • b. Probability farther than 2.5 SDs: 0.0062 (0.62%)
  • c. Probability between 1 and 2 SDs: 0.1359 (13.59%)

Would you like more details on how I calculated these probabilities?

Here are 5 related questions:

  1. What is the probability of being within 2 standard deviations of the mean?
  2. How would the probabilities change if the standard deviation increased?
  3. What is the probability that a bolt thread length is more than 3 SDs from the mean?
  4. How do you calculate z-scores for normally distributed data?
  5. How does the cumulative distribution function (CDF) relate to these calculations?

Tip: In a standard normal distribution, approximately 68% of data falls within 1 SD, 95% within 2 SDs, and 99.7% within 3 SDs of the mean (the empirical rule).

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Normal Distribution
Z-scores

Formulas

P(-z ≤ Z ≤ z)
Cumulative probability for a standard normal distribution
P(Z > z) = 1 - P(Z ≤ z)

Theorems

Empirical Rule (68-95-99.7 Rule)
Standard Normal Distribution

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12