Math Problem Statement

A multiple-choice test consists of 10 questions. Each question has answer choices of a, b, c, and d, and only one of the choices is correct. If a student randomly guesses on each question, what is the probability that she gets at most 1 of them correct?

Carry your intermediate computations to at least four decimal places, and round your answer to two decimal places.

(If necessary, consult a list of formulas.)

Solution

To solve this problem, we'll use the binomial probability formula because there are two possible outcomes for each question: correct or incorrect.

Step 1: Define the parameters

  • n=10n = 10: The number of questions.
  • p=14=0.25p = \frac{1}{4} = 0.25: The probability of getting a question correct (since there are 4 choices and only one is correct).
  • q=1p=0.75q = 1 - p = 0.75: The probability of getting a question incorrect.

We are asked to find the probability that the student gets at most 1 question correct. This means we need to find P(X1)P(X \leq 1), where XX is the number of correct answers.

Step 2: Use the binomial probability formula

The binomial probability formula is:

P(X=k)=(nk)pk(1p)nkP(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k}

Where:

  • (nk)\binom{n}{k} is the binomial coefficient, calculated as n!k!(nk)!\frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}.
  • kk is the number of correct answers.

We need to calculate the probabilities for X=0X = 0 and X=1X = 1, and then sum them up.

P(X1)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)P(X \leq 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)

Step 3: Calculate the individual probabilities

For X=0X = 0: P(X=0)=(100)(0.25)0(0.75)10P(X = 0) = \binom{10}{0} (0.25)^0 (0.75)^{10} P(X=0)=1×1×(0.75)100.0563P(X = 0) = 1 \times 1 \times (0.75)^{10} \approx 0.0563

For X=1X = 1: P(X=1)=(101)(0.25)1(0.75)9P(X = 1) = \binom{10}{1} (0.25)^1 (0.75)^{9} P(X=1)=10×0.25×(0.75)910×0.25×0.19380.4845P(X = 1) = 10 \times 0.25 \times (0.75)^{9} \approx 10 \times 0.25 \times 0.1938 \approx 0.4845

Step 4: Add the probabilities

P(X1)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)=0.0563+0.48450.5408P(X \leq 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) = 0.0563 + 0.4845 \approx 0.5408

Final Answer

The probability that the student gets at most 1 question correct is approximately 0.54 when rounded to two decimal places.

Would you like more details or have any questions? Here are some related questions to consider:

  1. What is the probability that the student gets exactly 2 questions correct?
  2. What is the probability that the student gets at least 1 question correct?
  3. How does the probability change if the test has 15 questions instead of 10?
  4. How does changing the number of answer choices to 5 affect the probability?
  5. What is the expected number of correct answers if the student guesses on all 10 questions?

Tip: When solving binomial probability problems, it’s helpful to remember that the sum of probabilities for all possible outcomes (e.g., 0 to 10 correct answers) must equal 1. This can help check your calculations.