Math Problem Statement

30% of students scored distinction in a test, if 10 students who took the test were chosen at random, find the probability that at least 2 of them get distinction.

Solution

The problem can be solved using the binomial probability distribution, as we are dealing with a fixed number of trials (10 students), two possible outcomes (distinction or no distinction), and a constant probability of success (30% or 0.3).

Step 1: Identify the parameters

  • n=10n = 10 (number of students selected)
  • p=0.30p = 0.30 (probability of a student scoring a distinction)
  • q=1p=0.70q = 1 - p = 0.70 (probability of a student not scoring a distinction)
  • We are asked to find the probability that at least 2 students get distinction, i.e., P(X2)P(X \geq 2).

Step 2: Set up the binomial probability formula

The general binomial probability formula is:

P(X=k)=(nk)pkqnkP(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} \cdot p^k \cdot q^{n-k}

Where:

  • (nk)\binom{n}{k} is the binomial coefficient, or "n choose k",
  • pkp^k is the probability of kk successes,
  • qnkq^{n-k} is the probability of nkn - k failures.

Step 3: Find P(X2)P(X \geq 2)

To find the probability that at least 2 students get a distinction, we can use the complement rule: P(X2)=1P(X<2)=1[P(X=0)+P(X=1)]P(X \geq 2) = 1 - P(X < 2) = 1 - [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)]

Step 4: Calculate P(X=0)P(X = 0) and P(X=1)P(X = 1)

  1. For X=0X = 0 (no students score distinction): P(X=0)=(100)(0.30)0(0.70)10=11(0.70)10=(0.70)100.0282P(X = 0) = \binom{10}{0} \cdot (0.30)^0 \cdot (0.70)^{10} = 1 \cdot 1 \cdot (0.70)^{10} = (0.70)^{10} \approx 0.0282

  2. For X=1X = 1 (one student scores distinction): P(X=1)=(101)(0.30)1(0.70)9=10(0.30)(0.70)9P(X = 1) = \binom{10}{1} \cdot (0.30)^1 \cdot (0.70)^9 = 10 \cdot (0.30) \cdot (0.70)^9 P(X=1)100.300.0403=0.121P(X = 1) \approx 10 \cdot 0.30 \cdot 0.0403 = 0.121

Step 5: Calculate P(X2)P(X \geq 2)

Now, using the complement rule: [ P(X \geq 2) = 1 - [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)] = 1 - [0.0282 + 0.121] = 1 - 0.1492 = 0.8508 ]

Thus, the probability that at least 2 of the 10 students get a distinction is approximately 0.8508 or 85.08%.

Would you like any further details?

Related Questions:

  1. How would the probability change if only 5 students were chosen?
  2. What is the probability that exactly 3 students scored distinction?
  3. Can the binomial distribution be approximated using the normal distribution for large nn?
  4. How would this scenario change if the probability of distinction was 50%?
  5. What is the expected number of students scoring distinction out of 10?

Tip: When dealing with "at least" or "at most" probabilities, always consider using the complement rule to simplify calculations.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Binomial Distribution
Complement Rule

Formulas

Binomial probability formula: P(X = k) = C(n, k) * p^k * q^(n-k)
Complement rule: P(X ≥ 2) = 1 - [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)]

Theorems

Binomial Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12