Math Problem Statement
Solution
This exercise involves probability calculations and a weighted tree diagram related to a promotion scenario. Let’s address the questions step by step. Here's how we can tackle this:
1(a):
-
Probability : The probability that a customer buys the promoted camera.
From the problem: . -
Probability : The probability that a customer buys the camera but does not buy the memory card.
Given: 70% of customers who buy the camera also buy the memory card, so . Thus:
1(b):
If a customer does not buy the camera (), we know:
- 60% of customers neither buy the camera nor the memory card, so:
- .
Thus:
2. Construct the weighted tree diagram:
The tree includes the following branches:
- First decision: , .
- Second decision (if ): , .
- Second decision (if ): , .
3. Verifying :
Using the law of total probability:
Substitute values:
4. Conditional probability :
Use Bayes’ theorem:
We already know:
- .
- .
Thus:
5(a) Completing the table:
Benefit per client (in €) | 0 | 4 | 30 |
---|---|---|---|
Probability | 0.60 | 0.28 | 0.12 |
5(b) Expected benefit for 100 customers:
The expected benefit is given by:
Substitute values:
For 100 customers:
Do you need further clarifications or deeper delving into any of these steps?
Here are five related questions:
- How would the calculations change if the probabilities were adjusted?
- Can we verify from the data?
- How can the weighted tree diagram be drawn explicitly?
- What happens to the benefit distribution if costs are included?
- Can this method be generalized to other promotions?
Tip: For tree diagrams, always label each branch with probabilities and outcomes to simplify calculations later.
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Probability
Conditional Probability
Law of Total Probability
Expected Value
Formulas
P(A ∩ C) = P(A) * P(C | A)
P(C) = P(A) * P(C | A) + P(¬A) * P(C | ¬A)
P(A | C) = P(A ∩ C) / P(C)
Expected Value: E(X) = Σ (Value * Probability)
Theorems
Bayes' Theorem
Law of Total Probability
Suitable Grade Level
Grades 10-12
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