Math Problem Statement

The number of parking tickets issued daily is a Poisson random variable with the rate 10 ticket per day. (a) Find the probability that exactly 5 tickets will be issued in one day (b) Find the probability that less than 5 tickets will be issued in one day (c) Find the probability that exactly 5 tickets will be issued in any two- day period (d) Find the probability that more than 5 tickets will be issued in any two- day period

Solution

We are dealing with a Poisson distribution where the number of parking tickets issued per day is described by a Poisson random variable. The Poisson distribution is characterized by its rate parameter λ\lambda, which represents the average number of occurrences within a fixed interval of time or space. In this case, λ=10\lambda = 10 tickets per day.

The probability mass function (PMF) of a Poisson distribution is given by:

P(X=k)=λkeλk!P(X = k) = \frac{\lambda^k e^{-\lambda}}{k!}

Where:

  • XX is the random variable representing the number of occurrences (in this case, parking tickets issued),
  • λ\lambda is the rate (mean) of occurrences,
  • kk is the number of occurrences for which we want to find the probability, and
  • ee is Euler's number (approximately 2.71828).

(a) Find the probability that exactly 5 tickets will be issued in one day.

For one day, the rate λ=10\lambda = 10 tickets/day, and we want the probability of exactly 5 tickets (i.e., k=5k = 5):

P(X=5)=105e105!P(X = 5) = \frac{10^5 e^{-10}}{5!}

Let’s calculate this.

(b) Find the probability that less than 5 tickets will be issued in one day.

The probability of less than 5 tickets being issued means we need to sum the probabilities for 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 tickets:

P(X<5)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3)+P(X=4)P(X < 5) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4)

Each term can be calculated using the Poisson PMF.

(c) Find the probability that exactly 5 tickets will be issued in any two-day period.

For a two-day period, the rate λ\lambda changes to 2×10=202 \times 10 = 20 tickets for two days. Now, we want the probability of exactly 5 tickets (i.e., k=5k = 5) in this two-day period:

P(X=5)=205e205!P(X = 5) = \frac{20^5 e^{-20}}{5!}

(d) Find the probability that more than 5 tickets will be issued in any two-day period.

To find the probability that more than 5 tickets will be issued, we calculate the complement of the probability of 5 or fewer tickets:

P(X>5)=1P(X5)P(X > 5) = 1 - P(X \leq 5)

Where:

P(X5)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3)+P(X=4)+P(X=5)P(X \leq 5) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) + P(X = 5)

We can now compute each part.


Let me calculate these probabilities for you.Here are the computed probabilities:

(a) The probability that exactly 5 tickets will be issued in one day:

P(X=5)=0.0378P(X = 5) = 0.0378

(b) The probability that less than 5 tickets will be issued in one day:

P(X<5)=0.0293P(X < 5) = 0.0293

(c) The probability that exactly 5 tickets will be issued in any two-day period:

P(X=5)=0.00005496P(X = 5) = 0.00005496

(d) The probability that more than 5 tickets will be issued in any two-day period:

P(X>5)=0.9999P(X > 5) = 0.9999

Let me know if you would like any further clarification or a breakdown of the calculations!


Here are 5 related questions to explore further:

  1. What is the probability of exactly 10 tickets being issued in a single day?
  2. How would the probabilities change if the rate increased to 15 tickets per day?
  3. What is the probability of fewer than 3 tickets being issued in a two-day period?
  4. What is the expected number of tickets issued over a three-day period?
  5. How does the standard deviation relate to the Poisson distribution in this case?

Tip: In a Poisson distribution, the mean and the variance are both equal to the rate parameter λ\lambda. This can help in estimating variability!

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Poisson Distribution

Formulas

Poisson probability mass function: P(X = k) = (λ^k * e^(-λ)) / k!
Complement rule for probabilities: P(X > k) = 1 - P(X ≤ k)

Theorems

Poisson Distribution Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12