Math Problem Statement

Assume that X is a Poisson random variable with μ = 20. Calculate the following probabilities.

Note: Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your final answers to 4 decimal places. a P(X ≤ 11)

b P(X = 14)

c P(X > 18)

d P(19 ≤ X ≤ 27)

Solution

In order to solve this, we'll use the properties of the Poisson distribution. For a Poisson random variable XX with mean μ\mu, the probability mass function (PMF) is given by:

P(X=k)=μkeμk!P(X = k) = \frac{\mu^k e^{-\mu}}{k!} where μ=20\mu = 20 and kk is the desired value of XX.

We can also calculate cumulative probabilities using the cumulative distribution function (CDF) for the Poisson distribution.

a) P(X11)P(X \leq 11)

This is the cumulative probability that XX takes on values from 0 to 11. We need to sum up the individual probabilities:

P(X11)=k=01120ke20k!P(X \leq 11) = \sum_{k=0}^{11} \frac{20^k e^{-20}}{k!}

b) P(X=14)P(X = 14)

This is the probability of XX taking on the value 14:

P(X=14)=2014e2014!P(X = 14) = \frac{20^{14} e^{-20}}{14!}

c) P(X>18)P(X > 18)

This is the complement of the cumulative probability up to 18:

P(X>18)=1P(X18)P(X > 18) = 1 - P(X \leq 18) We need to sum the probabilities for X18X \leq 18 and subtract from 1.

d) P(19X27)P(19 \leq X \leq 27)

This is the sum of the probabilities between 19 and 27:

P(19X27)=k=192720ke20k!P(19 \leq X \leq 27) = \sum_{k=19}^{27} \frac{20^k e^{-20}}{k!}

I will now calculate each of these probabilities using Python.Here are the calculated probabilities:

  • a) P(X11)=0.0214P(X \leq 11) = 0.0214
  • b) P(X=14)=0.0387P(X = 14) = 0.0387
  • c) P(X>18)=0.6186P(X > 18) = 0.6186
  • d) P(19X27)=0.5661P(19 \leq X \leq 27) = 0.5661

Would you like further details or have any questions?

Here are 5 related questions to explore:

  1. How would the probabilities change if μ\mu were 30 instead of 20?
  2. What is the expected value and variance of XX in the Poisson distribution?
  3. How can the Poisson distribution be approximated using a normal distribution?
  4. What is P(X=0)P(X = 0) for this Poisson distribution with μ=20\mu = 20?
  5. How would you calculate the cumulative probability for P(X15)P(X \leq 15)?

Tip: When μ\mu is large, the Poisson distribution can be approximated using a normal distribution with mean μ\mu and variance μ\mu.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Poisson Distribution
Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)
Probability Mass Function (PMF)

Formulas

P(X = k) = (μ^k * e^(-μ)) / k!
P(X ≤ k) = Σ from k=0 to n of (μ^k * e^(-μ)) / k!
P(X > k) = 1 - P(X ≤ k)

Theorems

Poisson Theorem
Complement Rule

Suitable Grade Level

Undergraduate or Advanced High School (Grades 11-12)