Math Problem Statement

ตอบคำถาม

กำหนดให้แบบจำลองสมการถดถอยเป็นดังนี้: y = Xβ + μ. จงอธิบายหลักการของวิธีการประมานค่าสมการถดถอยแบบ Ordinary Least Square (OLS) และหาผลแบบเมทริกซ์ของค่าความแปรปรวนของตัวแปรต่างๆ พร้อมทั้งพิสูจน์ว่าค่าสัมประสิทธิ์เป็นค่าประมาณการที่ไม่เอนเอียง (unbiased estimator) ภายใต้เงื่อนไขใด

Solution

Let’s break down and address the questions based on the image you provided, which discusses Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation and properties of the coefficients.

2.1: Explanation of OLS Estimation Principles

OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) is a method for estimating the parameters (coefficients) of a linear regression model. The goal of OLS is to minimize the sum of the squared differences between the observed values (from the dataset) and the values predicted by the model.

For a model like: y=Xβ+μy = X\beta + \mu Where:

  • yy is the vector of observed values,
  • XX is the matrix of independent variables (predictors),
  • β\beta is the vector of unknown coefficients to be estimated,
  • μ\mu is the vector of errors or residuals (the difference between the observed and predicted values).

The OLS method works by solving for β\beta in a way that minimizes the residual sum of squares: RSS=(yiy^i)2=(yiXiβ)2RSS = \sum (y_i - \hat{y}_i)^2 = \sum (y_i - X_i\beta)^2 OLS provides a formula for β^\hat{\beta} (the estimate of β\beta): β^=(XX)1Xy\hat{\beta} = (X'X)^{-1} X'y This solution assumes that the matrix XXX'X (the Gram matrix) is invertible, meaning the columns of XX must be linearly independent.

2.2: Finding Variance Matrix of Coefficients

In OLS, after estimating the coefficients β^\hat{\beta}, we can also estimate the variance of these estimates. This is important because it gives us a measure of how precise our estimates are. The variance-covariance matrix of the coefficient estimates β^\hat{\beta} is given by: Var(β^)=σ2(XX)1\text{Var}(\hat{\beta}) = \sigma^2 (X'X)^{-1} Where σ2\sigma^2 is the variance of the error term, often estimated using the residuals: σ^2=1nkμ^i2\hat{\sigma}^2 = \frac{1}{n - k} \sum \hat{\mu}_i^2 Where nn is the number of observations and kk is the number of predictors.

Unbiased Estimator Condition

OLS estimators of the coefficients β^\hat{\beta} are unbiased under the assumptions of the classical linear regression model, including:

  • Linearity of the relationship between the dependent and independent variables,
  • No perfect multicollinearity (i.e., the predictors are not perfectly correlated),
  • The error terms have constant variance (homoscedasticity),
  • The error terms are not correlated with each other.

When these assumptions hold, β^\hat{\beta} is the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE) according to the Gauss-Markov theorem.

Let me know if you want any additional explanations on specific points!

Related Questions:

  1. What are the assumptions required for OLS to be a valid estimation method?
  2. How can we test whether the OLS assumptions hold in a real-world dataset?
  3. What is the meaning of the variance-covariance matrix in regression analysis?
  4. How does multicollinearity affect the OLS estimation?
  5. Why do we need to check for homoscedasticity in regression analysis?

Tip:

Always ensure the assumptions of OLS are checked before interpreting the results to avoid biased estimates.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Linear Regression
Variance
Unbiased Estimator

Formulas

y = Xβ + μ
β̂ = (X'X)⁻¹ X'y
Var(β̂) = σ² (X'X)⁻¹
σ̂² = (1/(n - k)) Σ μ̂ᵢ²

Theorems

Gauss-Markov Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

University Level (Statistics, Econometrics)