Math Problem Statement

The numbers of polio cases in the world are shown in the table for various years. Let f(t) be the number of polio cases in thousands t years since 1980. Is it better to model the data using a linear or exponential model? Find an equation for f(t), predict the number of cases in 2015, and when there will be 1 case of polio, and find the half-life of the cases.

Solution

The table shows the number of polio cases (in thousands) for various years, and you are tasked with determining a mathematical model that fits the data and answering several questions based on that model. Let's break this down:

  1. Let f(t)f(t) represent the number of polio cases (in thousands), where tt represents the years since 1980:

    • The years in the table are 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2005, and 2007, corresponding to t=8,12,16,20,25,27t = 8, 12, 16, 20, 25, 27, respectively.
    • The number of polio cases (in thousands) are: 350, 138, 32, 6, 3.2, and 1.3.
  2. Determine whether a linear or exponential model fits the data better:

    • Since the number of polio cases is decreasing over time and the decrease appears to be rapid at first and then slows down, an exponential decay model is likely more suitable than a linear model.
  3. Find the equation of f(t)f(t):

    • The general form of an exponential model is f(t)=Aebtf(t) = A e^{-bt}, where AA is the initial value and bb is the rate of decay.
    • By fitting the data, we can find the values of AA and bb. Based on the trend of the data, I'll help calculate this equation.
  4. Predict the number of polio cases in 2015:

    • Use the model to predict the number of polio cases in 2015, which corresponds to t=35t = 35 (since 2015 is 35 years after 1980).
  5. Predict the year when there will be 1 case of polio:

    • Solve the equation f(t)=1f(t) = 1 to find the value of tt, and then convert it to the corresponding year.
  6. Find the half-life of the number of polio cases:

    • The half-life is the time it takes for the number of polio cases to reduce to half its initial value. This can be calculated from the exponential decay model.

Let me work out the details of this model and calculations.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Exponential Decay
Modeling
Scatter Plot

Formulas

Exponential decay model: f(t) = A * e^(-bt)
Half-life formula in exponential decay

Theorems

Exponential Growth and Decay Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 9-12