Math Problem Statement

As a prize, you have been given the chance to pick a free ticket for one of three

lotteries. Suppose your utility u of money m is given by u (m) = V(m - 10).

According to the principle of maximizing expected utility, you should pick a free ticket for which lottery?

Lottery 1| winnings

Lottery 2 winnings

Lottery 3 winnings

Decision matrix

probability probability = probability =

= 0.5

0.4

0.1

$74

$131

526

$110

$91

$35

$26

$26

$131

Solution

To determine which lottery ticket you should choose according to the principle of maximizing expected utility, we need to calculate the expected utility for each lottery. The utility function provided is u(m)=m10u(m) = \sqrt{m - 10}.

Here are the winnings and their probabilities for each lottery:

Lottery 1:

  • Probability = 0.5, Winnings = $74
  • Probability = 0.4, Winnings = $131
  • Probability = 0.1, Winnings = $26

Lottery 2:

  • Probability = 0.5, Winnings = $110
  • Probability = 0.4, Winnings = $91
  • Probability = 0.1, Winnings = $26

Lottery 3:

  • Probability = 0.5, Winnings = $35
  • Probability = 0.4, Winnings = $26
  • Probability = 0.1, Winnings = $131

We'll calculate the expected utility for each lottery.

Lottery 1

For each possible winning amount, calculate u(m)u(m):

  • u(74)=7410=64=8u(74) = \sqrt{74 - 10} = \sqrt{64} = 8
  • u(131)=13110=121=11u(131) = \sqrt{131 - 10} = \sqrt{121} = 11
  • u(26)=2610=16=4u(26) = \sqrt{26 - 10} = \sqrt{16} = 4

The expected utility EUEU for Lottery 1 is: EU1=(0.5×8)+(0.4×11)+(0.1×4)=4+4.4+0.4=8.8EU_1 = (0.5 \times 8) + (0.4 \times 11) + (0.1 \times 4) = 4 + 4.4 + 0.4 = 8.8

Lottery 2

  • u(110)=11010=100=10u(110) = \sqrt{110 - 10} = \sqrt{100} = 10
  • u(91)=9110=81=9u(91) = \sqrt{91 - 10} = \sqrt{81} = 9
  • u(26)=2610=16=4u(26) = \sqrt{26 - 10} = \sqrt{16} = 4

The expected utility EUEU for Lottery 2 is: EU2=(0.5×10)+(0.4×9)+(0.1×4)=5+3.6+0.4=9EU_2 = (0.5 \times 10) + (0.4 \times 9) + (0.1 \times 4) = 5 + 3.6 + 0.4 = 9

Lottery 3

  • u(35)=3510=25=5u(35) = \sqrt{35 - 10} = \sqrt{25} = 5
  • u(26)=2610=16=4u(26) = \sqrt{26 - 10} = \sqrt{16} = 4
  • u(131)=13110=121=11u(131) = \sqrt{131 - 10} = \sqrt{121} = 11

The expected utility EUEU for Lottery 3 is: [ EU_3 = (0.5 \times 5) + (0.4 \times 4) + (0.1 \times

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Expected Utility
Utility Function
Probability

Formulas

Expected Utility calculation

Theorems

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Suitable Grade Level

Advanced