Math Problem Statement
Sales of Volkswagens have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below).
Year
Sales
1
455
2
495
3
520
4
563
5
595
Part 2 a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using the trend projection (linear regression) method are enter your response here sales (round your response to one decimal place).
Solution
To forecast the sales for year 6 using the trend projection (linear regression) method, we first need to calculate the equation of the best-fit line (linear regression line). The linear regression equation is typically written as:
Where:
- is the forecasted sales,
- is the intercept,
- is the slope of the line,
- is the year.
The formula for the slope is:
The formula for the intercept is:
Steps:
- Use the given data to compute the sums:
- Sum of the years
- Sum of the sales
- Sum of the product of the years and sales
- Sum of the square of the years
- Plug these values into the formulas for and .
- Use the linear regression equation to forecast sales for year 6 by substituting .
Let me compute that for you.The forecasted sales for year 6 using the trend projection (linear regression) method are 630.0 units.
Would you like more details on how this was calculated or have any other questions?
Here are 5 related questions to explore further:
- How do you interpret the slope in a linear regression model?
- What happens if you have more than 5 years of sales data? How does it affect the forecast?
- Can this method be used for non-linear trends in sales growth?
- What is the significance of the intercept in the sales forecast?
- How does a high variation in past sales impact the accuracy of a trend projection?
Tip: In linear regression, the slope indicates the average change in sales per year.
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Linear Regression
Statistics
Trend Projection
Formulas
Linear regression equation: ŷ = a + bx
Slope formula: b = (nΣxy - ΣxΣy) / (nΣx^2 - (Σx)^2)
Intercept formula: a = (Σy - bΣx) / n
Theorems
Least Squares Method
Suitable Grade Level
Grades 10-12