Math Problem Statement

Sales of Volkswagens have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years​ (see table​ below).                                                   
Year Sales 1 455 2 495 3 520 4 563 5 595

Part 2 ​a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using the trend projection​ (linear regression) method are enter your response here sales ​(round your response to one decimal​ place).

Solution

To forecast the sales for year 6 using the trend projection (linear regression) method, we first need to calculate the equation of the best-fit line (linear regression line). The linear regression equation is typically written as:

y^=a+bx\hat{y} = a + bx

Where:

  • y^\hat{y} is the forecasted sales,
  • aa is the intercept,
  • bb is the slope of the line,
  • xx is the year.

The formula for the slope bb is:

b=nxy(x)(y)nx2(x)2b = \frac{n \sum xy - (\sum x)(\sum y)}{n \sum x^2 - (\sum x)^2}

The formula for the intercept aa is:

a=ybxna = \frac{\sum y - b \sum x}{n}

Steps:

  1. Use the given data to compute the sums:
    • Sum of the years x\sum x
    • Sum of the sales y\sum y
    • Sum of the product of the years and sales xy\sum xy
    • Sum of the square of the years x2\sum x^2
  2. Plug these values into the formulas for aa and bb.
  3. Use the linear regression equation to forecast sales for year 6 by substituting x=6x = 6.

Let me compute that for you.The forecasted sales for year 6 using the trend projection (linear regression) method are 630.0 units.

Would you like more details on how this was calculated or have any other questions?

Here are 5 related questions to explore further:

  1. How do you interpret the slope in a linear regression model?
  2. What happens if you have more than 5 years of sales data? How does it affect the forecast?
  3. Can this method be used for non-linear trends in sales growth?
  4. What is the significance of the intercept in the sales forecast?
  5. How does a high variation in past sales impact the accuracy of a trend projection?

Tip: In linear regression, the slope bb indicates the average change in sales per year.

Ask a new question for Free

By Image

Drop file here or Click Here to upload

Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Linear Regression
Statistics
Trend Projection

Formulas

Linear regression equation: ŷ = a + bx
Slope formula: b = (nΣxy - ΣxΣy) / (nΣx^2 - (Σx)^2)
Intercept formula: a = (Σy - bΣx) / n

Theorems

Least Squares Method

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12