Math Problem Statement

Find a linear equation to model the population growth of San Francisco based on given data, estimate the population in 2026, and predict when the population will reach 1,044,970.

Solution

Let's go through each part of the problem step by step:

Given Information:

  • Population of San Francisco in 2010: 805,235805,235
  • Population of San Francisco in 2020: 873,965873,965

Let tt be the number of years after 2010. So, t=0t = 0 corresponds to the year 2010 and t=10t = 10 corresponds to the year 2020.

Part a) Find a linear equation of the form p(t)=mt+bp(t) = mt + b:

We need to find the slope mm and the intercept bb for the linear equation p(t)=mt+bp(t) = mt + b, where p(t)p(t) represents the population at time tt.

  1. Slope mm: m=ΔpΔt=873,965805,235100=68,73010=6,873m = \frac{\Delta p}{\Delta t} = \frac{873,965 - 805,235}{10 - 0} = \frac{68,730}{10} = 6,873 The slope m=6,873m = 6,873, which represents the population increase per year.

  2. Intercept bb: Since bb represents the population in 2010 (i.e., when t=0t = 0): b=805,235b = 805,235

Thus, the equation is: p(t)=6,873t+805,235p(t) = 6,873t + 805,235

Part b) Estimate the population in the year 2026:

To estimate the population in 2026, we set t=20262010=16t = 2026 - 2010 = 16: p(16)=6,873(16)+805,235=109,968+805,235=915,203p(16) = 6,873(16) + 805,235 = 109,968 + 805,235 = 915,203

The estimated population in 2026 is 915,203.

Part c) Predict the year in which the population will reach 1,044,970:

We need to solve for tt when p(t)=1,044,970p(t) = 1,044,970: 1,044,970=6,873t+805,2351,044,970 = 6,873t + 805,235 Subtract 805,235 from both sides: 1,044,970805,235=6,873t1,044,970 - 805,235 = 6,873t 239,735=6,873t239,735 = 6,873t Solve for tt: t=239,7356,87334.86t = \frac{239,735}{6,873} \approx 34.86

Since t34.86t \approx 34.86, the year will be approximately 2010+35=20452010 + 35 = 2045.

The population is expected to reach 1,044,970 in the year 2045.


Would you like further details or have any questions?

Here are 5 related questions to further explore this topic:

  1. How would the equation change if the population growth rate increased after 2020?
  2. What happens to the linear model if the population decreases instead of increasing?
  3. How would we model the population if it followed exponential rather than linear growth?
  4. How does rounding affect the accuracy of population predictions?
  5. Can we calculate the population change over a different time interval, say from 2015 to 2025?

Tip: Linear models assume a constant rate of change, so they might not accurately capture population growth trends over very long periods.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Linear Functions
Population Growth
Slope-Intercept Form

Formulas

p(t) = mt + b

Theorems

Linear Growth Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 9-12