Math Problem Statement

A fuel refiner wants to know the demand for a grade of gasoline as a function of price. The table shows daily sales y (in gallons) for three different prices: $3.25 (4500 gallons), $3.50 (3750 gallons), and $3.75 (3300 gallons). Find the least squares regression line and estimate the demand when the price is $3.65.

Solution

Let's break this problem into parts and solve it step by step.

Part (a): Finding the least squares regression line

We are given:

  • Prices x={3.25,3.50,3.75}x = \{3.25, 3.50, 3.75\}
  • Demand y={4500,3750,3300}y = \{4500, 3750, 3300\}

We will calculate the least squares regression line in the form: y=mx+by = mx + b Where mm is the slope and bb is the y-intercept.

The formulas for the slope mm and intercept bb are: m=nxyxynx2(x)2m = \frac{n\sum xy - \sum x \sum y}{n\sum x^2 - (\sum x)^2} b=ymxnb = \frac{\sum y - m\sum x}{n} where nn is the number of data points (in this case, n=3n = 3).

Let's calculate the necessary terms:

  • x=3.25+3.50+3.75\sum x = 3.25 + 3.50 + 3.75
  • y=4500+3750+3300\sum y = 4500 + 3750 + 3300
  • xy=(3.25×4500)+(3.50×3750)+(3.75×3300)\sum xy = (3.25 \times 4500) + (3.50 \times 3750) + (3.75 \times 3300)
  • x2=(3.25)2+(3.50)2+(3.75)2\sum x^2 = (3.25)^2 + (3.50)^2 + (3.75)^2

Part (b): Estimating the demand for x=3.65x = 3.65

Once we have the equation from part (a), we substitute x=3.65x = 3.65 into the regression equation to estimate the demand.

Let me compute these values for you.### Solution:

Part (a): Least Squares Regression Line

The equation of the least squares regression line is: y=2400x+12250y = -2400x + 12250 This means that for every unit increase in price, the demand decreases by 2400 gallons.

Part (b): Estimate of Demand when Price is $3.65

When the price is $3.65, the estimated demand is: y=2400(3.65)+12250=3490gallonsy = -2400(3.65) + 12250 = 3490 \, \text{gallons}

Would you like further details or explanations?

Here are 5 related questions to extend your understanding:

  1. What is the significance of the slope in a linear regression model?
  2. How can you calculate the correlation between price and demand?
  3. How would you predict demand for prices outside the range provided?
  4. What does a negative slope indicate in this real-world context?
  5. How would the regression change if an outlier existed?

Tip: In regression, always check the goodness-of-fit (R² value) to understand how well the model predicts outcomes!

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Linear Regression
Slope and Intercept
Demand Modeling

Formulas

Slope (m) = (n∑xy - ∑x∑y) / (n∑x^2 - (∑x)^2)
Intercept (b) = (∑y - m∑x) / n
Least Squares Regression Line: y = mx + b

Theorems

Least Squares Regression

Suitable Grade Level

College-level statistics or high school advanced algebra